Pricing, Salience, and Waste: A Field Experiment on About-to-Expire Goods in Supermarkets

Last registered on January 06, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Pricing, Salience, and Waste: A Field Experiment on About-to-Expire Goods in Supermarkets
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017591
Initial registration date
January 05, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 06, 2026, 7:24 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Hong Kong
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Andong Yan
Affiliation
the University of Hong Kong
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2025-12-22
End date
2026-02-15
Keywords
Environment & Energy, Firms & Productivity
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Food waste in grocery retail is a major sustainability challenge, particularly for about-to-expire perishable products where pricing decisions involve a trade-off between waste reduction and profitability. This research project presents evidence from a large-scale field experiment conducted in partnership with a leading supermarket chain in Hong Kong to evaluate alternative clearance strategies for about-to-expire items. We implement a randomized controlled trial across 56 stores, testing three operational interventions: (i) deeper price markdowns on about-to-expire perishable products, (ii) bundle-based incentives that provide additional discounts when consumers purchase multiple units of the same about-to-expire item, and (iii) changes in in-store display that increase the visibility of about-to-expire fresh produce by consolidating these items in designated locations. The experiment targets high-waste categories including fresh meat, seafood, fruits, and vegetables, and is executed under real-world retail constraints with detailed measurement of sales, inventory, and waste. The analysis aims to quantify the causal effects of pricing depth, purchase incentives, and product salience on demand, waste reduction, and profits, with the goal of identifying scalable operational rules that reduce food waste without compromising retailer margins.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Yan, Andong. 2026. "Pricing, Salience, and Waste: A Field Experiment on About-to-Expire Goods in Supermarkets." AEA RCT Registry. January 06. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17591-1.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2025-12-22
Intervention End Date
2026-02-15

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Waste quantity of about-to-expire products
Store-level profitability / gross margin from targeted categories
Revenue (sales value) and volume sold of about-to-expire products
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Participating stores are assigned to one of several experimental groups. The interventions include: (i) adjustments to markdown depth for about-to-expire products, (ii) promotional incentives that encourage customers to purchase multiple units of the same about-to-expire item, and (iii) changes in in-store display that increase the visibility of about-to-expire fresh produce. A control group of stores continues to follow standard clearance procedures during the study period.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is conducted at the store level using a computer-generated random assignment. Stores are assigned in advance to the control group or one of the treatment groups by the research team using programs. Randomization is performed conditional on basic store characteristics (such as region and store format) to ensure balance across experimental groups.
Randomization Unit
The unit of randomization is the store. Participating supermarkets are randomly assigned at the store level to either the control group or one of the treatment groups. All interventions are implemented uniformly within each store.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
56 supermarket stores in total.
Sample size: planned number of observations
Approximately tens of millions of SKU–store–day observations, generated from daily transaction, inventory, and waste records across approximately 200 supermarket stores, each carrying around 1,000 SKUs, over the experimental period.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Control (business-as-usual clearance practices): ~160 stores
Treatment Arm 1 (markdown depth adjustment for about-to-expire items): 18 stores
Treatment Arm 2 (multi-unit purchase incentive for selected about-to-expire items): 18 stores
Treatment Arm 3 (centralized display for about-to-expire fresh produce): 20 stores
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan