The Effect of Macroeconomic Expectations on Consumer Spending and Mortgage Decissions

Last registered on January 09, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Effect of Macroeconomic Expectations on Consumer Spending and Mortgage Decissions
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017597
Initial registration date
January 07, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 09, 2026, 8:59 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Alexander Dietrich
Affiliation
Danmarks Nationalbnak
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Simon Juul Hviid
PI Affiliation
Danmarks Nationalbank
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PI Name
Michael Weber
PI Affiliation
Purdue University
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PI Name
Louiza Bartzoka
PI Affiliation
Copenhagen Business School
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-11-01
End date
2028-12-31
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
Inflation expectations, Interest rate expectations, Mortgages, RCT, Consumption Plans, Administratve Data
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study how exogenous variation in households’ expectations about inflation and interest rates affects their spending behavior and mortgage choice decisions. We use a randomized controlled trial that provides households with information about future economic conditions to generate exogenous changes in their expectations. The effects on spending and mortgage decisions are measured relative to an untreated control group in follow-up surveys. As part of the analysis, we examine heterogeneous information updating across households, depending on past economic conditions and prior financial decisions, which we identify using linked administrative data.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Bartzoka, Louiza et al. 2026. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Expectations on Consumer Spending and Mortgage Decissions." AEA RCT Registry. January 09. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17597-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We provide survey participants with public information on either
a) professional forecasters' inflation expectations
b) current interest rates and professional forecasters' intrerest rate expectations
c) the information from a) and b) combined.
A control group receives no information.
Intervention Start Date
2026-01-12
Intervention End Date
2026-03-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Consumption plans, mortgage decissions, household finance decissions
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
In the experiment, participants will be randomly provided with information on interest rates and or inflaiton. A control group receives no information.

Steps:
elicit pre-treatment beliefs
assign groups into treatment and controls
treated groups are provided with publicly about information
elicit post-treatment beliefs
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
computer randomization
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
We plan to collect approx. 5000 completed responses
Sample size: planned number of observations
We plan to collect approx. 5000 completed responses
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Group a) 1000 respondents
Group b) 1000 respondents
Group c) 1000 respondents
Control Group 2000 respondents
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
The Ethics Survey Comitee Danmarks Nationalbank
IRB Approval Date
2026-01-06
IRB Approval Number
DN-IRB 2026-01
Analysis Plan