Wrong Fit, Missed Gains? Evidence from Skill Training Choices in Liberia

Last registered on January 09, 2026

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Wrong Fit, Missed Gains? Evidence from Skill Training Choices in Liberia
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017603
Initial registration date
January 07, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 09, 2026, 8:58 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
DIW Berlin

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Worldbank
PI Affiliation
Worldbank

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2010-01-01
End date
2012-08-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Young job seekers often misperceive returns to job-skills training. We study training choices between a job-skills and a business-skills program for young women in Liberia. We randomly reassign a third of applicants from the oversubscribed job-skills to the business-skills track and compare them with applicants who remain in their chosen track. In the short run, reassigned women achieve employment and earnings gains two to three times larger. In the medium run, mean earnings converge but conceal sharp heterogeneity: some women gain substantially from reassignment, while others lose. Elicited expectations suggest misaligned choices and belief distortions for a subset of applicants.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Chakravarty, Shubha, Mattias Lundberg and Juliane Zenker. 2026. "Wrong Fit, Missed Gains? Evidence from Skill Training Choices in Liberia." AEA RCT Registry. January 09. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17603-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2010-03-01
Intervention End Date
2011-02-28

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
• Any IGA (employment) (indicator)
• Wage employment (indicator; primary IGA if multiple)
• Self-employment (indicator; primary IGA if multiple)
• Any formal business (indicator; registered or requiring substantial capital investment)
• Days worked (past week) and hours per typical workday, combined into hours/week
• Earnings from all IGAs (past week) (winsorized; analyzed with an IHS-transformation)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study uses a two-stage randomized evaluation design (a randomized controlled trial with a waitlist rollout), embedded in the EPAG training program in urban Liberia.

1) Recruitment and sample
• Young women were recruited in nine target communities around Monrovia (and Kakata), applied in person, completed a registration form (including their preferred track), and took a basic literacy/numeracy screen.
• Eligibility targeted women age 16–27, with basic literacy/numeracy, not recently enrolled in school, and residing in the target communities.
• About 2,106 were eligible; 1,991 were interviewed at baseline and entered the random assignment procedure.

2) Two interventions (tracks)
• Participants could receive either Job Skills (JS) training or Business Skills (BS) training. The intervention package included ~6 months of classroom training + ~6 months of follow-up services.

3) Stage 1 assignment: preference + capacity + random reassignment
• At application, women stated a preferred track (JS or BS).
• Because JS slots were limited, about 30% of JS-preferring applicants were reassigned to BS. This reassignment was done by randomly drawing application forms (manual random draw).
• This creates three “candidate groups”:
• G1: preferred JS and assigned JS
• G2: preferred BS and assigned BS (“BS chosen”)
• G3: preferred JS but reassigned to BS (“BS reassigned”)

4) Stage 2 assignment: randomized rollout (treatment vs waitlist control)
• Within each candidate group (G1–G3), women were randomly assigned to start in Round/Cohort 1 vs Round/Cohort 2:
• Cohort 1 = “treatment” (offered training immediately)
• Cohort 2 = “control” (waitlisted; started ~13 months later, after the first follow-up survey).
• The cohort randomization was done by computer, 2/3 to cohort 1 and 1/3 to cohort 2, stratified by experimental group.
• This yields six experimental groups (T1/C1, T2/C2, T3/C3) corresponding to (G1–G3) × (early vs late start), with sample sizes:
• T1=437, C1=312; T2=540, C2=304; T3=243, C3=155.

5) Measurement and estimation approach
• Surveys were collected at baseline (pre-disclosure of randomization results), first follow-up (after cohort 1 finished, before cohort 2 began), and second follow-up (immediately after cohort 2 finished).
• We report intention-to-treat (ITT) effects based on initial assignment, not actual participation.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer; by random draw
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1991
Sample size: planned number of observations
1991
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
T1=437, C1=312; T2=540, C2=304; T3=243, C3=155
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials