Information, Expectations, and Migration Decisions: Experimental Evidence on Migration Methods and Outcomes

Last registered on February 27, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Information, Expectations, and Migration Decisions: Experimental Evidence on Migration Methods and Outcomes
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017618
Initial registration date
January 11, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 12, 2026, 8:19 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
February 27, 2026, 5:41 AM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
Ethiopia
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Betsenat Gebrewold
Affiliation
LSE
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Morgan Hardy
PI Affiliation
NYU Abu Dhabi
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PI Name
Christian Johannes Meyer
PI Affiliation
University of Oxford
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2025-12-15
End date
2026-03-31
Keywords
Behavior, Gender, Labor, Other, Welfare
Additional Keywords
International labor migration; formal migration; information intervention; household spillovers; field experiment
JEL code(s)
F22, J61, O15, C93, O12
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Many Ethiopians migrate abroad through informal channels despite the availability of government-regulated formal pathways. This study examines whether structured information about formal and informal migration – combined with guided reflection on expected outcomes – affects migration decisions, method choice, and subsequent outcomes. We conduct a randomized controlled trial among women registered for overseas employment at government employment service centers. Treatment group participants receive an intervention embedded in the baseline survey that presents formal and informal migration scenarios, elicits expectations across multiple outcome dimensions, and displays these comparisons using interactive visual aids. Control group participants complete the baseline survey without this component. We hypothesize that the intervention shifts migration intentions, increases uptake of formal migration channels, and improves realized migration and household outcomes.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Gebrewold, Betsenat, Morgan Hardy and Christian Johannes Meyer. 2026. "Information, Expectations, and Migration Decisions: Experimental Evidence on Migration Methods and Outcomes." AEA RCT Registry. February 27. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17618-2.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The intervention is a structured decision-making exercise embedded in the baseline survey. Treatment group participants report their current migration plans and expectations across several outcome dimensions. They are then presented with hypothetical alternative migration scenarios and asked to provide expectations for those scenarios as well. Enumerators guide participants through a comparison exercise using visual aids, designed to clarify the expected tradeoffs across different migration pathways.
Intervention (Hidden)
The intervention is a structured decision-making exercise embedded in the baseline survey for treatment group participants. It has three components:
First, respondents report their planned migration steps and provide expectations across several outcome dimensions, including likelihood of success, safety, time to migrate, costs, and wellbeing. Responses are recorded on a worksheet.

Second, respondents are presented with two hypothetical migration scenarios that differ from their current plan along key dimensions related to the formality of the migration process. For each scenario, respondents provide expectations on the same outcome dimensions.

Third, enumerators use the worksheet to guide respondents through a visual comparison of expected outcome under their current plan and alternative scenarios. For each outcome, the survey calculates expectation differences on a −5 to 5 scale, which respondents represent by shading boxes to the left or right to indicate lower or higher outcomes and the magnitude of change. This exercise is designed to make expected tradeoffs across different migration pathways salient.

The intervention concludes with a task in which respondents allocate tokens across options representing the likelihood of pursuing different migration pathways.
Intervention Start Date
2025-12-15
Intervention End Date
2026-03-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Expected likelihood of migrating, expected migration method, migration status, migration method, earnings, work conditions, emotional wellbeing
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study uses a two-arm randomized design to assess the impact of structured reflection on migration decisions and outcomes. Control group participants complete a baseline survey covering individual and household characteristics, migration plans, preferences, and expectations. Treatment group participants complete the same survey with an embedded intervention: they are presented with alternative migration scenarios and guided through a comparison of expected outcomes across pathways using visual aids. To assess immediate effects, we measure migration intentions and expected method both before and after the intervention within the survey. We plan to collect follow-up data on migration outcomes.
Experimental Design Details
The study uses a two-arm randomized design. Control group participants complete a baseline survey collecting individual and household characteristics, migration steps taken and planned, time and risk preferences, expected migration outcomes, expected probability of migrating, expected migration method, and contact information for follow-up. Treatment group participants complete the same survey with the intervention embedded.
The intervention proceeds as follows: treated respondents are shown two hypothetical migration scenarios that differ from their planned migration steps along dimensions related to the formality of the migration process. For each scenario and for their current plan, respondents state expectations across several outcome dimensions and record these on a physical worksheet. The survey program computes differences in expected outcomes across scenarios, and the enumerator presents these computed differences using interactive visual aids. This exercise is designed to increase the salience of tradeoffs across migration pathways.
To assess immediate effects of the intervention, we measure expected probability of migrating and expected migration method at two points within the survey: midway through the survey and again at the end of the survey. For treatment group participants, the initial measure is taken before the intervention. We plan to collect follow-up data on migration outcomes.
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
A day at a registration center (OSSC)
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1,440 days at a registration center (OSSC)
Sample size: planned number of observations
3,850 job seekers
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Control group = Treatment group = 1,925
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Oxford: Social Sciences & Humanities Interdivisional Research Ethics Committee (SSH IDREC)
IRB Approval Date
2025-07-28
IRB Approval Number
1805194
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials