Pragmatism or Emotions: How Narratives Shape Perceptions of and Attitudes toward Immigration

Last registered on April 01, 2026

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Pragmatism or Emotions: How Narratives Shape Perceptions of and Attitudes toward Immigration
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017645
Initial registration date
March 27, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 01, 2026, 9:59 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
New Economic School

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
New Economic School
PI Affiliation
New Economic School

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2024-03-19
End date
2026-04-02
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Historically, immigration has been a topic of heated public and political debate, where public beliefs about immigrants are often shaped by stereotypes and persistent misperceptions. Immigration has also become an economically salient issue, in the view of population aging and a shrinking labor force on the one hand and with the concerns about its contribution to the unemployment on the other. This paper studies how information provision and narratives affect reported beliefs about immigrants, corresponding moral evaluations, and policy preferences. We conduct a multi-wave randomized survey experiment in Russia, that largely builds on Alesina et al. (2023) to ensure international comparability. The experiment contrasts factual and emotional narratives aimed at shifting misperceptions. Our major contribution, besides expanding geographical coverage to a country that has a large, diverse and persistent immigration flows and multi-ethnic population, is to introduce a pragmatic economic narrative in both text and video formats (including a salience-enhanced variant) that frames immigration as an economic input, essential for economic growth in a country with shrinking population. In each wave, respondents report baseline characteristics, are randomly assigned to an intervention, and then answer a common set of post-treatment questions. We also collect standard demographic covariates and apply pre-specified attention checks and exclusion rules.

Our analysis focuses on three questions. First, we examine whether baseline beliefs are distorted in stereotypical directions, especially on salient dimensions such as crime and immigrants’ origins. Second, we test whether different informational treatments reduce immigration-related misperceptions. We further examine whether narrative interventions operate through distinct channels, for example by affecting moral attributions and support for inclusive policies. Third, we examine how heightened threat salience changes the effectiveness of different narratives. Exploiting the close timing of fieldwork around a salient violent event associated with immigrants, we test whether heightened salience makes respondents less responsive to pragmatic economic arguments and more responsive to moral narratives, or whether it instead makes them harder to persuade regardless of the message.

Alberto Alesina, Armando Miano, Stefanie Stantcheva, Immigration and Redistribution, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 90, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 1–39, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac011
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Bouev, Maxim, Arina Rodina and Anton Suvorov. 2026. "Pragmatism or Emotions: How Narratives Shape Perceptions of and Attitudes toward Immigration." AEA RCT Registry. April 01. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17645-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2026-04-01
Intervention End Date
2026-04-02

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Misperceptions about immigrants’ characteristics, attitudes toward immigrants, and support for immigration-related policies.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Misperceptions about immigrants’ characteristics are defined as the difference between respondents’ perceived values and official statistics for key dimensions of immigration in Russia. These include:
the perceived share of immigrants in the total population;
the perceived crime rate among immigrants;
the perceived distribution of immigrants by region of origin;
the perceived educational composition of immigrants, measured as the perceived share with higher education and the perceived share without primary education.
For each dimension, misperceptions are constructed as the respondent’s estimate minus the true value, expressed in percentage points.

Attitudes toward immigrants capture evaluative beliefs, stereotypes, and normative judgments about immigrants’ effort, economic contribution, and obligations. These outcomes are measured using respondents’ agreement with statements on:
whether immigrants are poor because of a lack of effort;
whether immigrants are rich because they worked harder than others;
whether immigrants pay more taxes than non-immigrants;
whether immigrants receive more government transfers than non-immigrants;
whether immigrants who are citizens of Russia should be subject to military obligations.
Responses are recorded on ordered agreement scales and analyzed both at the item level and, where appropriate, using standardized indices.

Support for immigration-related policies measures preferences over institutional treatment and social inclusion of immigrants. These outcomes are captured by responses to questions on:
support for earlier access to citizenship;
support for earlier eligibility for social benefits;
agreement that immigration is not a problem;
beliefs about how quickly an immigrant can be considered “Russian”;
agreement that the government should care equally about all people living in the country.

Together, these outcomes allow us to distinguish between belief updating, changes in attitudes, and shifts in policy support in response to different informational treatments, as well as to assess how these outcomes respond to a salient negative immigration-related event.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We conduct a multi-wave online survey experiment designed to study beliefs, attitudes, and policy support related to immigration in Russia. The survey elicits respondents’ quantitative perceptions of key immigrant characteristics, including the share of immigrants in the population, crime rates among immigrants, countries of origin, and educational attainment. Attitudes toward immigrants and support for immigration-related policies are measured using a standardized set of opinion questions. Perceptions are elicited using quantitative response formats such as numerical entry fields and percentage allocations.

The core of the design is a randomized information experiment. Respondents are randomly assigned to one of several groups: a control group that receives no information, or one of multiple treatment groups that receive a single informational or narrative intervention. The treatments include:
(i) factual information about the overall share of immigrants in Russia and in other countries;
(ii) factual information about the distribution of immigrants in Russia by region of origin;
(iii) an emotional video narrative portraying a hardworking immigrant;
(iv) a concise, text-based pragmatic narrative describing Russia’s demographic constraints and the economic role of immigration;
(v) a video-based pragmatic narrative conveying the same economic content as the text-based narrative; and
(vi) a video-based pragmatic narrative that includes an additional concluding point emphasizing immigrants’ contribution to the country.

Randomization occurs at the individual level, with each respondent exposed to at most one treatment. All outcome variables are measured after the treatment. The survey is fielded in multiple waves, which allows us to examine changes in beliefs and attitudes over time, including responses to a salient negative immigrant-related event, and to assess the persistence of treatment effects in a follow-up wave.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is conducted through the online survey platform. Upon entering the survey, respondents are randomly assigned at the individual level to either the control group or one of the treatment groups with equal probability.
Randomization Unit
The unit of randomization is the individual respondent. All treatments are assigned at the individual level, each respondent is exposed to at most one treatment.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
0 clusters (individual-level randomization; no clustering)
Sample size: planned number of observations
2,400-2,800 respondents per wave
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
400 respondents per treatment arm per wave, 6 treatment groups + 1 control group
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Committee on the Use of Human Subjects in Research
IRB Approval Date
2026-02-12
IRB Approval Number
А1214-03