Uncertainty and Rounding in Expectation Surveys

Last registered on January 22, 2026

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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

Uncertainty and Rounding in Expectation Surveys

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0017646

Initial registration date

January 14, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

January 22, 2026, 6:28 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name

Jonas Dovern

Affiliation

Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg

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Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status

In development

Start date

2026-01-14

End date

2026-02-28

Keywords

Behavior

Additional Keywords

inflation expectation, macroeconomics

JEL code(s)

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

Evidence from previous research on survey-based inflation expectations of private households suggests that rounded point forecasts signal heightened subjective expectation uncertainty. This association is typically established through simple correlations between rounding indicators and measures of uncertainty derived from probabilistic expectations. What is missing from the literature is a causal investigation of the effects of changes in subjective uncertainty on rounding behavior. This project aims to fill this gap by conducting a randomized controlled trial in which respondents' subjective uncertainty is exogenously shifted through the provision of external information about the range of inflation or experts' inflation forecasts. We then analyze changes in the frequency and intensity of rounding in respondents' point forecasts caused by these shifts in expectation uncertainty.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Dovern, Jonas. 2026. "Uncertainty and Rounding in Expectation Surveys." AEA RCT Registry. January 22. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17646-1.0

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

In the RCT, we vary the information about US inflation that survey participants see during participation.

Intervention Start Date

2026-01-14

Intervention End Date

2026-02-28

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

Indicators of whether households round their inflation expectations to integer values or even multiples of five.

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

For both prior and posterior inflation expectations (with horizon of twelve months), we check for each individual whether the provided number, which can be stated with a maximum of two decimal places, is an integer or even a multiple of five.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Inflation expectations themselves.

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Our information treatments follow the literature and are meant to shift expectation uncertainty. Still, we plan to check to what extent they also shift the first moment of expectations.

Experimental Design

We provide the treatment groups with the information treatment after we have elicited prior expectation and expectation uncertainty.

Following the treatment, we elicit some socioeconomic information and then the posterior expectation and expectation uncertainty.

The brief survey concludes with a question about the reasons for providing rounded inflation expectations that is shown to all participants that stated integer inflation expectations.

Experimental Design Details

Not available

Randomization Method

Randomization is implemented via random number generation within the implementation of the survey (in Limesurvey).

Randomization Unit

Randomization is done at the level of private households.

Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

Sample size: planned number of observations

The survey will cover n=4,000 households. n=400 observations are from a pilot study. The main study is planned to cover n=2600 households.

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

Control group: 15%.
SPF disagreement treatment: 35%
Inflation history treatment (verbal): 25%
Inflation history treatment (graphical): 25%

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Supporting Documents and Materials

IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name

IRB Approval Date

IRB Approval Number

Analysis Plan