Uncertainty and Rounding in Expectation Surveys

Last registered on January 22, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Uncertainty and Rounding in Expectation Surveys
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017646
Initial registration date
January 14, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 22, 2026, 6:28 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Germany
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Jonas Dovern
Affiliation
Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-01-14
End date
2026-02-28
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
inflation expectation, macroeconomics
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Evidence from previous research on survey-based inflation expectations of private households suggests that rounded point forecasts signal heightened subjective expectation uncertainty. This association is typically established through simple correlations between rounding indicators and measures of uncertainty derived from probabilistic expectations. What is missing from the literature is a causal investigation of the effects of changes in subjective uncertainty on rounding behavior. This project aims to fill this gap by conducting a randomized controlled trial in which respondents' subjective uncertainty is exogenously shifted through the provision of external information about the range of inflation or experts' inflation forecasts. We then analyze changes in the frequency and intensity of rounding in respondents' point forecasts caused by these shifts in expectation uncertainty.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Dovern, Jonas. 2026. "Uncertainty and Rounding in Expectation Surveys." AEA RCT Registry. January 22. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17646-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
In the RCT, we vary the information about US inflation that survey participants see during participation.
Intervention (Hidden)
In particular, we will have three treatment groups in addition to one control group.

After eliciting prior inflation expectations and expectation uncertainty, we will provide ...

... treatment group 1 with a verbal statement that informs about the dispersion of inflation expectations in the latest wave of the SPF ("According to the most recent edition of the renowned Survey of Professional Forecasters (operated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia), experts are certain about the inflation outlook for the US over the coming year, with the difference between the most optimistic forecast and the most pessimistic forecast amounting to 1.1 percentage points. This is a small difference by historical standards."), ...

... treatment group 2 with a verbal statement about the range of recently observed inflation rates ("Since January 2024 the US inflation rate has been rather stable within a narrow band with a width of 1.1 percentage points. In other words, the difference between the largest and the lowest inflation rate observed since then has been only 1.1 percentage points."), ...

... treatment group 3 with a graph that shows the evolution of the inflation rate since January 2024.
Intervention Start Date
2026-01-14
Intervention End Date
2026-02-28

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Indicators of whether households round their inflation expectations to integer values or even multiples of five.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
For both prior and posterior inflation expectations (with horizon of twelve months), we check for each individual whether the provided number, which can be stated with a maximum of two decimal places, is an integer or even a multiple of five.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Inflation expectations themselves.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Our information treatments follow the literature and are meant to shift expectation uncertainty. Still, we plan to check to what extent they also shift the first moment of expectations.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We provide the treatment groups with the information treatment after we have elicited prior expectation and expectation uncertainty.

Following the treatment, we elicit some socioeconomic information and then the posterior expectation and expectation uncertainty.

The brief survey concludes with a question about the reasons for providing rounded inflation expectations that is shown to all participants that stated integer inflation expectations.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization is implemented via random number generation within the implementation of the survey (in Limesurvey).
Randomization Unit
Randomization is done at the level of private households.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
NA
Sample size: planned number of observations
The survey will cover n=4,000 households. n=400 observations are from a pilot study. The main study is planned to cover n=2600 households.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Control group: 15%.
SPF disagreement treatment: 35%
Inflation history treatment (verbal): 25%
Inflation history treatment (graphical): 25%
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials