Trading off investment in human capital versus productive assets: perceptions of risk and return

Last registered on April 01, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Trading off investment in human capital versus productive assets: perceptions of risk and return
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017654
Initial registration date
March 29, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 01, 2026, 10:30 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Ethiopia
Region
Country
Kenya
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Yuma Noritomo
Affiliation
Cornell University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Karlijn Morsink
PI Affiliation
Utrecht University School of Economics
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Kelvin Shikuku
PI Affiliation
International Livestock Research Institute
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2025-12-01
End date
2030-01-31
Keywords
Agriculture, Behavior, Education, Environment & Energy, Labor, Welfare
Additional Keywords
human capital, climate change, ASALs, pastoralist, livestock
JEL code(s)
O12, Q54, I25, c93
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Agriculture has long been the main and often the only career path for low-income farmers in many developing countries. In many contexts, however, climate change is making agriculture increasingly risky, while new labor market opportunities for skilled workers are emerging. This study examines how the decisions of parents to invest in the education and labor of their children in pastoralist households in northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia are influenced by uncertainty about climate risks and future labor markets. Using hypothetical choice experiments and a randomized intervention that provides information on climate risk and labor market opportunities, the research investigates how expectations about the future, conditional on parental preferences and beliefs, influence investments in education and productive assets.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Morsink, Karlijn, Yuma Noritomo and Kelvin Shikuku. 2026. "Trading off investment in human capital versus productive assets: perceptions of risk and return." AEA RCT Registry. April 01. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17654-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

Partner

Name
International Livestock Research Institute
Type
none
URL
https://www.ilri.org/
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Our treatment intervention is designed to inform households about climate risk and labor market conditions. We have three treatment arms: climate risk information, labor market information, and a combined information arm (see the analysis plan for further details).
(1) Households assigned to the climate risk information group receive information on climate risk, including the number of droughts in their region during the past 25 years and trends over time.
(2) Households assigned to the labor market information group receive information on labor market conditions, including average wages and employment probabilities conditional on educational attainment.
(3) Households assigned to the combined information group receive both types of information described above.
Intervention Start Date
2025-12-01
Intervention End Date
2026-01-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Voucher choice between education and livestock expenses of equivalent value; expected future educational attainment and planned livelihood for a selected boy; child activities and time use in the coming seasons. Further details are provided in the pre-analysis plan.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Beliefs about climate risk and returns to education; planned livestock investment. Further details are provided in the pre-analysis plan.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The proposed randomized experiment includes approximately 2,000 pastoralist households with school-aged boys. During the survey, households are randomly assigned to one of four groups, with approximately 500 households in each group:
(1) Households assigned to the climate risk information group receive information on climate risk, including the number of droughts in their region over the past 25 years and trends over time.
(2) Households assigned to the labor market information group receive information on labor market conditions, including average wages and employment probabilities conditional on educational attainment.
(3) Households assigned to the combined information group receive both types of information described above.
(4) Households in the control group do not receive any information.
Further details are provided in the pre-analysis plan.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Participants are randomly assigned to treatment groups using Stata. Randomization is stratified by unit area of insurance (UAI) and district.
Randomization Unit
Randomization is conducted at the household level.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
NA
Sample size: planned number of observations
2,000 households
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Approximately 500 households are assigned to each of the four study arms: the climate risk information group, the labor market information group, the combined information group, and the control group.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
International Livestock Research Institute Institutional Research Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2025-01-24
IRB Approval Number
ILRI-IREC2023-76/2
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

analysis_plan_tradeoff_Noritomo

MD5: 752465105aeaf067e6a650a355099137

SHA1: 6dd0b206631b5489f2314e3cf7ca507e8e9c0450

Uploaded At: March 29, 2026