Exchange rate expectations and portfolio investment

Last registered on January 28, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Exchange rate expectations and portfolio investment
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017660
Initial registration date
January 14, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 28, 2026, 6:51 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Argentina
Region
Country
Brazil
Region
Country
Chile
Region
Country
Colombia
Region
Country
Mexico
Region
Country
Peru
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Esteban Verdugo
Affiliation
University of Michigan
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Mathieu Pedemonte
PI Affiliation
Inter-American Development Bank
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PI Name
Hiroshi Toma
PI Affiliation
Texas A&M University
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Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2025-11-03
End date
2025-11-09
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
Expectations, Exchange Rate, Households, Portfolio Investment
JEL code(s)
D14, D84, E21
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This project aims to explore how exchange rate expectations influence households' portfolio saving choices. More specifically, we plan to study how beliefs about future exchange rate value affect households' choices among saving instruments such as checking and savings accounts, cash in local or foreign currency, and cryptocurrency, among others. While existing theory provides guidance on the channels through which expected exchange rate movements shape households' behavior, there is very limited causal evidence on this relationship. To address this gap and overcome the endogeneity existing between the two elements, we propose to generate exogenous variation in households' exchange rate beliefs and analyze their intended saving behavior. We will conduct a randomized controlled trial, providing different country-specific information treatments using a large-scale survey across several Latin American economies. We intend to exploit countries' idiosyncratic institutional and historical context.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Pedemonte, Mathieu, Hiroshi Toma and Esteban Verdugo. 2026. "Exchange rate expectations and portfolio investment." AEA RCT Registry. January 28. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17660-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We will conduct a randomized controlled trial, providing different country-specific information treatments using a large-scale survey across several Latin American economies. The country-specific information is the exchange rate forecast issued by the local central bank for the December 2025 horizon.
Intervention (Hidden)
For each country, a group of respondents was randomly selected to receive an information treatment, while the remaining respondents received no information. The information involved in each country-specific treatment corresponds to the country’s local central bank forecast for the exchange rate in December 2025
Intervention Start Date
2025-11-03
Intervention End Date
2025-11-09

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcomes are households’ evaluation of central bank performance and credibility, and their portfolio allocations across saving instruments.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Each question offers randomized answer options. Respondents must select from the available options to answer each question. For the evaluation of central bank performance, the set of possible answers is a satisfaction scale. For the portfolio allocations, the possible answers are very specific options, such as cash in local currency, cash in dollars, cryptocurrency, among others.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We will conduct a randomized controlled trial, providing different country-specific information treatments using a large-scale survey across six Latin American economies. For each country, we have one treated and one passive control group. The treated group received information corresponding to the local central bank's exchange rate forecast, while the control group received none. Respondents are allocated to these groups at random.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
The randomization process is done by a computer.
Randomization Unit
Individual (respondent) level.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
6 countries.
Sample size: planned number of observations
Around 1,000 observations per country. Therefore, around 6,000 observations in total.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Around 500 observations per group (treatment and control groups) for each of the 6 countries.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials