Belief Disagreement and Instability under Stochastic Recall: Motivating Study

Last registered on January 28, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Belief Disagreement and Instability under Stochastic Recall: Motivating Study
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017773
Initial registration date
January 26, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 28, 2026, 7:53 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Li Tang
Affiliation
University of Birmingham
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Pei Kuang
PI Affiliation
University of Macau
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PI Name
Michael Weber
PI Affiliation
Purdue University
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-01-27
End date
2027-03-31
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
E31, D84, C83
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study how imperfect memory shapes belief formation, belief disagreement across individuals, and belief changes within individuals. In a two-part online study, participants are randomly assigned to view sequences of information from one of four domains: historical inflation rates, historical S&P 500 index values, opinion headlines on U.S. tariff policy during the Trump administration, or news headlines about a major electric vehicle company. After viewing the information, participants report assessments and recalls related to the information shown. One day later, participants are recontacted to re-elicit beliefs and recall of the previously presented information, allowing us to study cross-sectional belief disagreement and within-individual belief changes over time.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Kuang, Pei, Li Tang and Michael Weber. 2026. "Belief Disagreement and Instability under Stochastic Recall: Motivating Study." AEA RCT Registry. January 28. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17773-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Participants take part in a two-part online study.

In Part 1, participants are randomly assigned to one of four information conditions. In each condition, participants view a sequence of information items presented one at a time. The information consists of either historical inflation rates, historical S&P 500 index values, opinion headlines related to U.S. tariff policy during the Trump administration, or news headlines about a major electric vehicle company.

In Part 2, conducted one day after Part 1, participants are recontacted and asked a follow-up set of questions related to the information presented earlier.
Intervention Start Date
2026-01-28
Intervention End Date
2027-01-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcomes are participants’ beliefs and evaluations following exposure to the information sequence. Depending on the information condition, these include beliefs about the underlying quantity or attribute described by the information, such as assessments of quality, performance, or overall stance.

The main outcomes of interest are (i) cross-sectional belief disagreement among participants exposed to the same information sequence and (ii) within-individual belief changes between Part 1 and Part 2.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study uses a two-part online experimental design. In Part 1, participants are randomly assigned to one of four information conditions. In each condition, participants view a sequence of information items presented one at a time. The information differs by condition and consists of either historical inflation rates, historical S&P 500 index values, opinion headlines related to U.S. tariff policy during the Trump administration, or news headlines about a major electric vehicle company.

After viewing the information sequence, participants provide evaluations or assessments related to the information shown.

Part 2 of the study is conducted approximately one day after Part 1. Participants are recontacted and asked a follow-up set of questions related to the same information domain, including repeated belief or assessment questions and questions about the previously presented information.

The experimental design allows for comparisons of responses across participants exposed to the same information and within individuals across the two parts of the study.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
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Randomization Unit
Individual-level.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Around 1000 respondents.
Sample size: planned number of observations
Around 1000 respondents.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Around 300 respondents per group.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Reading Research Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2025-10-24
IRB Approval Number
N/A
Analysis Plan