Financial Subsidies, Childcare, and Fertility Intentions: Evidence from a Survey Experiment

Last registered on January 28, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Financial Subsidies, Childcare, and Fertility Intentions: Evidence from a Survey Experiment
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017784
Initial registration date
January 28, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 28, 2026, 8:01 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
China
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Yiming Xia
Affiliation
RIEM,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Guochang Zhao
PI Affiliation
Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2025-12-15
End date
2026-01-31
Keywords
Labor
Additional Keywords
Fertility Intention, Constraints
JEL code(s)
J13
Secondary IDs
H31
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study examines how financial subsidies and free public childcare jointly shape fertility intentions. We implement a 2×6 factorial survey experiment with an online sample of Chinese adults aged 20–45, varying subsidy levels (none vs. higher) and access to free childcare (0 to 5 days per week). The design allows us to test the interaction between these two policies—representing relief from monetary and time constraints—and their combined effect on fertility intentions. We also assess gender differences in responses. Our findings support integrated pro-natalist policies: financial incentives alone may generate limited impact unless paired with sufficient childcare infrastructure. This underscores the need to address both cost and care burdens simultaneously.






External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Xia, Yiming and Guochang Zhao. 2026. "Financial Subsidies, Childcare, and Fertility Intentions: Evidence from a Survey Experiment." AEA RCT Registry. January 28. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17784-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Status quo policy: 300 RMB monthly child subsidy + 0 days of free public childcare.
Experimental design: 2×6 factorial survey experiment.
Subsidy levels: 300 RMB (status quo) vs. 1,000 RMB (high). Childcare levels: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 days per week of free public childcare.
Total scenarios: 12 unique policy bundles (2 subsidy × 6 childcare).
Randomization: Each respondent is randomly assigned to evaluate one policy bundle.
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2026-01-15
Intervention End Date
2026-01-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Fertility intention:
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
1. Planned total number of children: How many children do you plan to have?
Two indicators:
2. Whether the respondent intends to have at least one child
3. Whether they intend to have two or more children

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Time use, satisfaction, stress
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Self-reported time use on leisure, work and childcare.
Likert scale: life satisfaction, Work–life balance satisfaction, Economic stress, Psychological stress

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We conduct an online survey with a target sample of at most 3000 adults aged 20 to 45 in China.
1. The survey begins with questions on family background and baseline fertility information including age gender education income marital status current number of children and desired size.
2. Each respondent is then randomly assigned by a computer algorithm embedded in the survey tool to receive one of 12 policy scenarios combining two subsidy levels RMB 300 versus RMB 1000 and six levels of free public childcare from 0 to 5 days per week.
3. After viewing their assigned policy bundle, they report their fertility intentions as well as perceptions of time use work life balance satisfaction economic stress and psychological stress under that policy.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
by a computer algorithm embedded in the survey tool
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
max 3000 adults
Sample size: planned number of observations
max 3000 adults
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
equal size 1500 individuals receive high subsidy
500 individuals receive 0 - 5 days
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Research Ethics Committee of the China Center for Behavioral Economics and Finance (CCBEF)
IRB Approval Date
2025-12-29
IRB Approval Number
#2025B07
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials