Experimental Design
Design. A framed laboratory experiment with two between-subjects arms, run in supervised in-person sessions at Bangor University and completed on participants' own phones. Each participant completes, in order: a three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT); a real-effort task that earns a lottery ticket; a ten-row choice list between an amount paid tonight and £50.00 paid in four weeks, where the treatment is applied; a certainty question; and a short questionnaire. The arms differ only in how the cost of receiving money tonight is described: in T1 as a smaller amount, in T2 as £50.00 minus an early access fee. Payoffs are identical row by row. Full details are under Intervention.
Assignment. Participants are randomly assigned as individuals, after the CRT and before any treatment material is shown. Assignment is stratified by CRT score (high: 2 or 3 correct; low: 0 or 1): within each stratum in each session, participants are assigned in randomly ordered blocks of four, two to each arm. The software shows each participant the description for their assigned arm, so assignment and treatment coincide.
Amendment of 22 September 2026. This registration was amended before collection of the data used in the confirmatory analysis. Changes and reasons:
- The predicted direction of the main effect is reversed to correct an error. The original registration predicted later switching and higher discount rates. The prediction registered here, that participants shown the fee choose to wait earlier and so show lower implied discount rates, is the one stated in the study protocol approved by the College of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences AREC, Bangor University, on 2 March 2026 (reference 1397), before any data were collected. A two-sided 90% confidence interval is reported whatever the sign of the estimate, so an effect in the originally registered direction would remain visible.
- The primary outcome changes from the discount rate to the switch row. This changes the unit of measurement, not what is measured; the rate is kept as a descriptive figure.
- Sessions are held in person, supervised, on participants' own phones, instead of online.
- A three-item CRT is added at the start and used to stratify assignment, which was previously unstratified.
- The planned sample falls from 400 (200 per arm) to 240 (120 per arm) to fit the available funding. The minimum detectable effect at this sample size is given in the power calculation.
- The stake falls from £60 to £50; each lottery ticket wins with probability 1 in 15, and one row is paid; both options are paid by bank transfer, as stated to participants; the "(Free)" label is removed from the delayed option.
- The Holt and Laury (2002) risk task is dropped, and with it the joint estimation of risk and time preferences (Andersen et al. 2006) and the risk-corrected discount factor.
- Cognitive uncertainty changes from a control variable to a secondary outcome, because it is measured after the choices. Its question is reworded (quoted under Secondary Outcomes), and the slider must now be moved before the participant can continue. Reported financial constraint is added as a secondary outcome.
- H2 and H3 are registered as exploratory. An analysis plan, set out in the Experimental Design Details, and a power calculation are added.
- Data from earlier pilot sessions are excluded. They were collected on a previous version of the instrument, which lacked several of the changes above and also did not block assignment, record CRT timeouts, or show a certainty-page summary to participants who switch in row 1 or never switch.
- Claims that the design isolates surcharge aversion or measures demand for credit are withdrawn, and the title is changed accordingly. The original title was "Rational Arbitrage or Behavioural Friction? Isolating the Microfoundations of Demand for Buy Now, Pay Later", under which the ethics approval (reference 1397) was granted.