Job-matching for Displaced Populations in El Salvador

The intervention to be evaluated consists of subsidizing two months of wages for displaced first- time job seekers from former gang-controlled communities. This short-term subsidy is expected to help overcome the structural barriers to formal employment faced by these individuals, leading to increased short-term and long-term formal employment, development of job-related skills, improved socioeconomic conditions, and reduced risks of future displacement. On the side of employers, the increase in exposure to displaced workers from former gang neighborhoods is expected to impact the firms’ hiring decisions, making them permanently more willing to hire individuals from these communities.

Target population and sample size:

The main target population of this study consists of displaced individuals from communities that were previously under the de facto control of the gangs. We aim to recruit a total of 2,000 eligible participants, 1,300 of whom will be invited to participate in the program, while the remaining 700 will be in the control group. Based on the previous waves of this program, we anticipate that 1,300 invitations to participate in the program will result in approximately 140 long-term contracts signed between the workers and the firms. We also aim to recruit a total of 600 eligible firms that are willing to hire the participants of the program, 300 of which will be invited to participate in the program, while the remaining 300 will be in the control group. Based on the previous waves of this program, we anticipate that the participation of approximately 300 firms is required to sign 140 long-term contracts between the workers and the firms.

Study or evaluation design:

On the worker side, the ideal implementation of the treatment would have the following structure:

1. Together with INCAF, we would recruit 2,000 eligible displaced individuals from communities that were previously under the de facto control of the gangs.

2. At the time an individual is recruited, they will be asked to participate in a baseline survey about their education, training, and other sociodemographic characteristics. Once the baseline survey is completed, we will randomly select 1,300 participants who will be invited to participate in the program. Based on the previous waves of this program, we anticipate that 1,300 invitations to participate in the program will result in approximately 140 long-term contracts signed between the workers and the firms. The remaining 700 individuals will be assigned to the control group.

3. We will conduct post-treatment surveys with all the individuals recruited into the program four months after the treatment (i.e., when the subsidy expires) and a year after the treatment to determine the effects of the program on their labor market outcomes and other socioeconomic conditions in the short and long run.

On the firm side, the implementation of the treatment will have the following structure:

1. Together with the INCAF, we would recruit 600 eligible firms that are willing to hire the participants of the apprenticeship program.

2. At the time the firms are recruited, they will be asked to participate in a baseline survey about their hiring practices. Once the baseline survey is completed, we will randomly select 300 firms that will be invited to participate in the program. Based on the previous waves of this program, we anticipate that approximately 300 firms are required to sign 140 long-term contracts between the workers and the firms. The remaining 300 firms will be assigned to the control group.

3. Once the program is concluded and the firms stop receiving the subsidies for the newly hired workers, we will conduct follow-up surveys with all the initially surveyed firms to determine whether participation in the INCAF program affected their hiring practices.

Implementing partner(s): This study will be performed in partnership with the INCAF in El Salvador. INCAF, the National Institute for Formation, is a government entity in El Salvador that recently received oversight responsibility for skills training and job programs from the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection (MTPS). Thus, given INCAF’s mandate, if the program is successful, it has the potential to be scaled up and implemented at the national level.

2026-05-01

2026-10-01

Worker-Side Primary Outcomes:
1. Formal Employment Status
2. Job related skills
3. Socioeconomic conditions

Firm-Side Primary Outcome:

3. Firms hiring decisions: Number of workers hired from former gang-controlled neighborhoods following program completion.

Overall, the project will evaluate the effects of the apprenticeship program on displaced
individuals from communities that were previously under the control of criminal groups. Thus, in
addition to the standard barriers to formal employment encountered by young, poor, and less
educated job seekers, these individuals also routinely face employment discrimination due to
employers’ fear that they might be affiliated with gangs. Such instances of employment
discrimination particularly affect individuals whose demographic profile most closely matches
those of active gang members (i.e., young, less educated, male). Consequently, we anticipate the
effects of the program to be particularly pronounced for these sub-populations, and we intend to
evaluate this hypothesis as a part of our project.

This is a two-sided randomized controlled trial with parallel randomizations of workers and firms.

Worker-Side Design:

Together with INCAF, recruit 2,000 eligible displaced individuals from communities formerly under gang control. Upon recruitment, administer baseline survey covering education, training, and sociodemographic characteristics. Randomly assign 1,300 to treatment (program invitation) and 700 to control using computer-based randomization in Stata. Stratify by gender, age group, education level, and municipality. Conduct follow-up surveys at 4 months (short-run) and 12 months (long-run) post-treatment with all recruited individuals.

Firm-Side Design:

Together with INCAF, recruit 600 eligible firms willing to hire program participants. Upon recruitment, administer baseline survey on hiring practices. Randomly assign 300 firms to treatment (eligible to hire subsidized workers) and 300 to control using computer-based randomization. Stratify by firm size, sector, and geographic location. Conduct follow-up surveys at 12 months post-program to assess hiring behavior changes.

Not available

Computer-based randomization using Stata's random number generator

Individual level for workers; firm level for employers. No clustering in randomization design.

No

Not applicable - no clustering

Worker sample: 2,000 individuals (1,300 treatment, 700 control) Firm sample: 600 firms (300 treatment, 300 control)

Worker sample: 2,000 individuals (1,300 treatment, 700 control)
Firm sample: 600 firms (300 treatment, 300 control)

We computed power calculations in Stata using the following parameters: • Significance level (𝛼) = 0.05 • Number of control subjects (𝑁1 ) = 700 • Number of treated subjects (𝑁2 ) = 1300 • Baseline rate of formal wage employment (𝑝1 ) = 0.254 • Target rate with formal wage employment (𝑝2 ) = 0.334 The parameters were selected as follows. A standard significance level of 5% was chosen. The number of individuals in the treatment and control groups was then determined in collaboration with the INCAF based on the data from the previous waves of the program. The baseline rate of formal wage employment is derived from a dataset collected in a previous study (Melnikov et al., 2020). Specifically, it represents the rate of individuals residing in former gang areas who are employed by formal firms with 20 or more employees. Given that all the treatment and control subjects are unemployed first-time job seekers, this rate is likely to represent a generous upper bound for the share of these individuals who will become formally employed in the absence of the apprenticeship program. However, we use this number to provide the most conservative estimate of the effects that can be detected in our study. Assuming that (i) 140 individuals in the treatment group sign long-term apprenticeship contracts and (ii) in the absence of the apprenticeship program, individuals in both the treatment and control groups have a 25.4% probability of getting a formal job, the expected probability of having a formal job for the treatment group would be (140 + 1160 * 0.254) / 1300 = 33.4%. By utilizing these parameters, we calculated a statistical power level (𝛽) of 0.9634, which is significantly higher than the commonly accepted threshold of 0.8.