How Partisanship Shapes Economics Expectations

Last registered on February 10, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
How Partisanship Shapes Economics Expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017859
Initial registration date
February 09, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 10, 2026, 6:47 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Yoon Jo
Affiliation
Texas A&M University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Taewon Hwang
PI Affiliation
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Jorge Hirs-Garzón
PI Affiliation
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2025-04-07
End date
2025-12-31
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
D83, D84, E65, F16
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study how households update their beliefs about the economic effects of tariffs following the April 2, 2025 tariff policy announcement (“Liberation Day”). Using a randomized survey experiment, we first elicit households’ baseline beliefs about the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We then provide information about tariffs drawn from empirical research and contemporary media coverage and examine how respondents revise their beliefs in response to this information. The primary outcomes are revisions in inflation expectations, unemployment expectations, and overall economic sentiment. Secondary outcomes include approval of the current federal government.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Hirs-Garzón, Jorge, Taewon Hwang and Yoon Jo. 2026. "How Partisanship Shapes Economics Expectations." AEA RCT Registry. February 10. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17859-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Respondents are randomly assigned to receive one of several information treatments describing empirically documented economic effects of tariffs or contemporary media coverage of policy discussions. The information treatments are designed to isolate distinct channels through which tariffs affect the economy. After receiving the information, respondents report post-treatment beliefs about key macroeconomic outcomes and political attitudes. A control group receives no additional information.

The information treatments are based on prominent empirical studies and widely circulated media reports related to past tariff episodes.
Intervention (Hidden)
The information treatments are based on prominent empirical studies and media coverage related to past tariff episodes:

T1 (Inflation): Based on Cavallo et al. (2019), which show that most of the cost of U.S. import tariffs is passed through to consumers in the form of higher prices.

T2 (Employment): Based on Autor et al. (2024), which find little evidence of employment gains in sectors protected by tariffs and significant job losses in sectors exposed to retaliatory tariffs, particularly in agriculture.

T3 (Stock prices): Based on Amiti et al. (2024), which document that announcements of tariff increases led to immediate and sizable declines in U.S. stock market returns.

T4 (Fox news): A news article excerpt from Fox News reporting statements by Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell regarding the expected economic effects of tariffs.

T5 (NYtimes): A news article excerpt from NYtimes reporting statements by Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell regarding the expected economic effects of tariffs.

Respondents in the control group do not receive any additional information.
Intervention Start Date
2025-04-07
Intervention End Date
2025-04-25

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Primary outcomes are pre- to post-treatment revisions in respondents’: inflation expectations,
unemployment expectations, and overall economic sentiment.

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
We also examine respondents’ approval of the current federal government and willingness to pay remove the tariff policy.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study uses a within-subject randomized survey experiment. Respondents are randomly assigned at the individual level to one of the information treatments or to a control group. All respondents first report baseline beliefs about macroeconomic outcomes and the expected effects of tariffs. Treated respondents then receive one information treatment, after which all respondents report post-treatment beliefs. This design allows us to measure how the provision of additional information affects revisions in expectations about inflation, unemployment, and overall economic sentiment. In addition to estimating average treatment effects, we examine heterogeneity in belief updating by respondents’ baseline subjective models of tariff policy, perceived novelty of the information, and political affiliation.
Experimental Design Details
The experiment incorporates multiple information treatments based on prominent empirical studies and media coverage of past tariff episodes:

T1 (Inflation): Based on Cavallo et al. (2019), which show that most of the cost of U.S. import tariffs is passed through to consumers in the form of higher prices.

T2 (Employment): Based on Autor et al. (2024), which find little evidence of employment gains in sectors protected by tariffs and significant job losses in sectors exposed to retaliatory tariffs, particularly in agriculture.

T3 (Stock prices): Based on Amiti et al. (2024), which document that announcements of tariff increases led to immediate and sizable declines in U.S. stock market returns.

T4 (Fox news): A news article excerpt from Fox News reporting statements by Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell regarding the expected economic effects of tariffs.

T5 (NYtimes): A news article excerpt from NYtimes reporting statements by Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell regarding the expected economic effects of tariffs.

Respondents are randomly assigned to one of the treatment arms or to a control group that does not receive any additional information.

We first examine whether the information treatments lead to belief updating. We then assess whether belief updating differs by respondents’ pre-existing subjective models of the economy, perceived novelty of the information, and political affiliation. Finally, we examine whether changes in economic expectations following the information treatments are associated with changes in respondents’ support for the current federal government.
Randomization Method
Randomization implemented in qualtrics survey.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
No cluster
Sample size: planned number of observations
1200
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
200 per treatment arm
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Texas A&M University
IRB Approval Date
2026-04-10
IRB Approval Number
STUDY2025-0456
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials