First-time Voters, Lasting Democracy

Last registered on February 19, 2026
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
First-time Voters, Lasting Democracy
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017876
Initial registration date
February 12, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 19, 2026, 6:51 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Bangladesh
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Sandip Sukhtankar
Affiliation
University of Virginia
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Ahmed Mobarak
PI Affiliation
Yale University
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Katrina Kosec
PI Affiliation
IFPRI
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PI Name
Moogdho Mahzab
PI Affiliation
IFPRI
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2026-02-02
End date
2026-12-31
Keywords
Electoral
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study investigates how decentralized political movements built around street protests transform into formal political forces, specifically within the context of Bangladesh’s democratic transition following the July–August 2024 student-led uprising. Despite the critical role played by women and youth in toppling the previous authoritarian regime, these groups have remained largely marginalized in the subsequent interim government and political leadership. This project utilizes a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in rural Bangladesh to test whether video narratives highlighting the contributions of these underrepresented groups can influence political engagement in the February 2026 national elections.

The intervention involves community screenings combined with door-to-door and digital information campaigns deployed at the polling-station level. Clusters are randomly assigned to one of four arms: (1) a video narrative highlighting the role of male student protesters in the 2024 uprising; (2) a video narrative highlighting the role of female student protesters and organizers; (3) a video narrative focusing on the historical 1971 independence struggle; and (4) a pure control group. By leveraging administrative election data and exit polls, the study estimates the causal effect of these narrative framings on electoral turnout and voting behavior. The findings aim to provide insight into how narrative framing shapes democratic inclusion in fragile and transitional political settings.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Kosec, Katrina et al. 2026. "First-time Voters, Lasting Democracy." AEA RCT Registry. February 19. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17876-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Polling stations are randomly assigned to one of four groups

Treatment 1: Male-Centered Protest Narrative (Contemporary)
Intervention: A 5-minute video highlighting the July–August 2024 student-led uprising, featuring clips and narratives centered on male student leaders and protesters.

Treatment 2: Female-Centered Protest Narrative (Contemporary)
Intervention: A 5-minute video mirroring the structure of Treatment 1 but substituting imagery and narratives to center female student leaders and organizers.

Treatment 3: Historical Narrative
Intervention: A 5-minute video focusing 1971 independence struggle, secular narrative, and religious harmony.

Control Group
Intervention: No video intervention.
Intervention Start Date
2026-02-02
Intervention End Date
2026-02-11

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
1. Electoral turnout (Administrative data and day-of-election counts)
2. Vote shares (Administrative data)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study employs a clustered randomized controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the impact of narrative video interventions on voting behavior in rural Bangladesh. The experiment is timed to precede the February 2026 national election. The design tests whether highlighting the specific contributions of marginalized groups (women and youth) in the 2024 uprising affects their subsequent political participation and the electorate's perception of their legitimacy.

Design Overview
Unit of Randomization: The randomization unit is the polling station catchment area, which typically corresponds to a distinct village boundary. This minimizes spillover effects between treatment and control groups.

Stratification: Randomization is stratified first by political constituency to ensure geographic balance. Within constituencies, polling stations are stratified based on female voter share, as we anticipate that women's share of the population and of registered voters in particular may moderate the impacts of treatments on turnout.

Treatment Arms: Polling stations are randomly assigned to one of four groups:

Treatment 1: Male-Centered Protest Narrative (Contemporary)
Treatment 2: Female-Centered Protest Narrative (Contemporary)
Treatment 3: Historical Narrative
Control Group

Intervention Delivery
The intervention is delivered via a hybrid model to ensure broad coverage within the treated clusters:
Door-to-Door: Field staff visit households to show videos directly to residents.
Community Screenings: Videos are shown in public gathering spots
Digital Dissemination: Links to the videos are shared via WhatsApp to residents within the catchment area.

Data Collection & Outcomes Data will be collected from two primary sources:
Administrative Data (Election Commission): Official turnout rates and vote shares at the polling-station level.
Day-of-election data: Conducted on election day (12 February 2026) to capture turnout by demographic categories, including gender, perceived religiosity, and age group.

Primary Outcomes: Voter turnout, vote choice.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Via computer
Randomization Unit
Polling station
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
300 polling stations
Sample size: planned number of observations
200-300 units at the polling station level; potentially more if we obtain survey funding
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
T1: 50 polling stations, T2: 50 polling stations, T3: 50 polling stations, C: 50 for day-of-election data, + 100 (i.e. 150 total control stations) for administrative data
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
International Food Policy Research Institute IRB
IRB Approval Date
2025-11-24
IRB Approval Number
00007490
Analysis Plan