Motivated Beliefs about Others' Preferences

Last registered on July 02, 2026

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Motivated Beliefs about Others' Preferences
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017885
Initial registration date
July 01, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 02, 2026, 7:15 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University College London

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-07-02
End date
2026-07-30
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study whether individuals form motivated beliefs about others' preferences when such beliefs can rationalise self-interested behaviour. In an online experiment, participants report their own willingness to work (WTW) on real-effort tasks and predict a counterpart's WTW. Participants are randomly assigned to a role (Employer or Worker) and an incentive condition (Low or High). Employers make a payoff-relevant decision about how many tasks to assign their counterpart, while Workers act as pure predictors with no such stake. We test whether Employers report higher beliefs about a counterpart's WTW than Workers, and whether stronger incentives to assign tasks widen this gap. Using higher-order beliefs, we further examine whether individuals anticipate motivated reasoning in others, and whether those who reason in a motivated way are aware of their own distortion.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Gao, Shuran. 2026. "Motivated Beliefs about Others' Preferences." AEA RCT Registry. July 02. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17885-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2026-07-02
Intervention End Date
2026-07-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
(See attached pre-analysis plan)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
(See attached pre-analysis plan)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
(See attached pre-analysis plan)
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Assignment to all treatments are randomised by computer.
Randomization Unit
Control/treatment conditions are randomised at individual level.
Order of some questions are randomised at individual level.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
800 participants
Sample size: planned number of observations
800 participants
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
200 low-incentive treatment; 200 high-incentive treatment; 200 low-incentive control; 200 high-incentive control
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
UCL Research Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2024-09-06
IRB Approval Number
SHSEco-2324-014-1
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Motivated Beliefs about Others' Preferences (Pre-Analysis Plan)

MD5: a143c52e6a022072b372144ca5eec99b

SHA1: b7fa2f957c20cd92aa68f4a44d6f2140ddf02980

Uploaded At: July 01, 2026