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Field
Abstract
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Before
This study investigates whether deterrence messages and social norm messages are complementary or substitutes in generating voluntary tax compliance among firms. Phase 1 employs a 2×2 factorial experimental design involving 4,000 firms that failed to file their 2024 Industry and Commerce Tax (ICA) declarations in Medellín, Colombia. Using stratified randomization by firm size, sector, and location, firms are assigned to four groups receiving: (1) a neutral reminder (control), (2) deterrence-only message highlighting penalties and enforcement, (3) social norm-only message emphasizing peer compliance rates, or (4) a combined deterrence and social norm message. The primary research question tests whether these mechanisms exhibit complementarity (combined effect exceeds sum of individual effects) or crowding-out (combined effect is less than sum of individual effects), and whether this interaction varies by firm size. Phase 2 (June–December 2026) is an observational follow-up tracking firms that failed to file their ICA declaration during Phase 1 (expected ~3,800 firms, assuming 2-5% voluntary compliance rate) to explore whether prior message exposure affects responses to subsequent formal enforcement notices (emplazamientos) sent according to the Tax Authority's standard prioritization procedures. The study period extends from April 2026 through December 2026, enabling assessment of both immediate voluntary compliance effects and long-term behavioral persistence.
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After
This study investigates whether deterrence messages and social norm messages are complementary or substitutes in generating voluntary tax compliance among firms. Phase 1 employs a 2×2 factorial experimental design involving firms that failed to file their 2024 Industry and Commerce Tax (ICA) declarations in Medellín, Colombia. Using stratified randomization by firm size, sector, and location, firms are assigned to four groups receiving: (1) a neutral reminder (control), (2) deterrence-only message highlighting penalties and enforcement, (3) social norm-only message emphasizing peer compliance rates, or (4) a combined deterrence and social norm message. The primary research question tests whether these mechanisms exhibit complementarity (combined effect exceeds sum of individual effects) or crowding-out (combined effect is less than sum of individual effects), and whether this interaction varies by firm size. Phase 2 (June–December 2026) is an observational follow-up tracking firms that failed to file their ICA declaration during Phase 1 (expected ~3,800 firms, assuming 2-5% voluntary compliance rate) to explore whether prior message exposure affects responses to subsequent formal enforcement notices (emplazamientos) sent according to the Tax Authority's standard prioritization procedures. The study period extends from April 2026 through December 2026, enabling assessment of both immediate voluntary compliance effects and long-term behavioral persistence.
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