Firm Expectations and the Duration of Geopolitical Conflict

Last registered on March 12, 2026
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Firm Expectations and the Duration of Geopolitical Conflict
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018062
Initial registration date
March 09, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
March 12, 2026, 4:34 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Germany
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Lukas Hack
Affiliation
ETH Zurich / University of Mannheim
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Davud Rostam-Afschar
PI Affiliation
University of Mannheim
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-03-11
End date
2026-05-31
Keywords
Crime, Violence, & Conflict, Firms & Productivity
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We conduct a survey experiment with a representative sample of German firms to study how beliefs about the duration of the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war affect economic expectations. Firms are randomly assigned to receive information about expected war duration. Using scenario-based belief elicitation, we estimate the causal effect of war duration beliefs on firms' expectations.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Hack, Lukas and Davud Rostam-Afschar. 2026. "Firm Expectations and the Duration of Geopolitical Conflict." AEA RCT Registry. March 12. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18062-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2026-03-11
Intervention End Date
2026-05-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Expectations for own input prices, sales prices, and consumer prices
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
All outcomes are percent changes over the next 12 months

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Additional exposure and policy variables
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We inform all participants with a brief text about the Israel-US-Iran war, and a randomized subset with additional expert assessments that are informative about the war duration.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer. We randomly assign half of the participants to Group A and the remainder to Group B. These groups constitute our treatment (Group A) and control groups (Group B) and differ in the information we provide.
Randomization Unit
Survey participant, i.e., managers of German firms
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
600-1000 firms
Sample size: planned number of observations
600-1000 respondents, i.e., 1 respondent per cluster
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
300-500 respondents
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan