Fiscal Illusion and Public Preferences for Government Spending and Taxation in Japan: Evidence from a Survey Experiment

Last registered on March 10, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Fiscal Illusion and Public Preferences for Government Spending and Taxation in Japan: Evidence from a Survey Experiment
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018063
Initial registration date
March 09, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
March 10, 2026, 10:40 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
KOHEI KIYA
Affiliation
University of Aizu
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-03-11
End date
2026-03-16
Keywords
Governance
Additional Keywords
fiscal illusion, government spending, taxation, public debt
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Japan has one of the highest levels of public debt among developed countries. This study examines people’s perceptions of public finance as a potential factor related to government deficits. Using an online survey experiment with approximately 1,000 respondents in Japan, this study examines how people’s preferences for government spending and taxation change when they receive information about public finances. Specifically, the study examines whether (i) providing information on the size of central government debt changes people’s preferences regarding central government spending and taxation and (ii) providing information on the average share of own-source revenue in municipalities changes preferences for municipal government spending in Japan.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
KIYA, KOHEI. 2026. "Fiscal Illusion and Public Preferences for Government Spending and Taxation in Japan: Evidence from a Survey Experiment." AEA RCT Registry. March 10. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18063-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2026-03-11
Intervention End Date
2026-03-16

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
1. Central Government
- Preference regarding central government spending (ordered categorical response).
- Preference regarding central government tax revenue (ordered categorical response).

2. Municipal Government
- Preference regarding municipal spending (ordered categorical response).
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
- Perceived size of central government debt (numeric response)
- Perceptions regarding the current level of central government debt (ordered categorical response).
- Preference regarding the future level of central government debt (ordered categorical response).
- Expectations regarding future tax burden, future public services, and the intergenerational burden of central government debt (ordered categorical responses).
- Perceived size of the average share of own-source revenue in municipalities (numeric response)
- Perceptions regarding who ultimately bears the fiscal burden of municipal spending (categorical response).
- Perceptions regarding the role and appropriateness of intergovernmental transfers to municipalities (ordered categorical responses).
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study uses a 2×2 factorial survey experiment with two informational treatments.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Individual-level randomization is not used; participants are allocated to cells based on quota-based sampling by age group. Participants will be recruited on a first-come-first-served basis within age quotas. The survey company will set target sample sizes for each group within each age category. Respondents will fill cells until the target number of observations in each cell is reached.
Randomization Unit
Individual survey respondent
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1,000 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
1,000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Participants will be allocated within five age strata: 18–29, 30–39, 40–49, 50–59, and 60–69. Within each age stratum, the target sample size is 50 respondents per treatment arm. This results in approximately 250 respondents per treatment arm and 1,000 respondents in total.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Research Ethics Committee, The University of Aizu
IRB Approval Date
2026-01-16
IRB Approval Number
2025 No. 336
Analysis Plan