Forward and Backward Naivete in Unpleasant Tasks

Last registered on March 31, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Forward and Backward Naivete in Unpleasant Tasks
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018162
Initial registration date
March 18, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
March 31, 2026, 9:36 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Charles Sprenger
Affiliation
Caltech
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Ted O'Donoghue
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Christina McGranaghan
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-03-23
End date
2027-06-01
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
intertemporal choice, dynamic inconsistency, sophistication
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Accumulated evidence on present-biased preferences indicates that individuals at times exhibit
a disproportionate preference for immediate rewards. Rationalizing theories of quasi-hyperbolic
discounting implicate a behavioral parameter, β, capturing this preference. Our central question is
whether individuals are aware of their own present bias. While prior work focuses on forward-looking
awareness — asking if individuals appropriately forecast the effect of present bias on future behavior
— this project will also consider backward-looking awareness — asking if individuals appropriately
understand the impact of present bias on past behavior and incorporate it into their recollections
and evaluations
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
McGranaghan, Christina, Ted O'Donoghue and Charles Sprenger. 2026. "Forward and Backward Naivete in Unpleasant Tasks." AEA RCT Registry. March 31. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18162-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
To capture backward-looking awareness, this project builds on the design by Augenblick and
Rabin (2019) which, across several weeks, elicits participants’ willingness to complete immediate or
delayed unpleasant tasks at various wages. The Augenblick and Rabin design also elicits predictions
to explore the extent of forward-looking awareness. Our proposed design introduces a set of recall
tasks that allows us to jointly explore forward and backward naivete.
Intervention Start Date
2026-03-23
Intervention End Date
2027-06-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
This project makes use of three primary sets of outcome variables: 1)Effort allocations at various wage rates for advance work and immediate work; 2) Forecasted effort allocations at various wage rates for advance work and immediate work; 3) Recalled effort allocations at various wage rates for advance work and immediate work.

In order to draw inference on present bias, we will contrast advance work decisions and immediate work decisions. In order to draw inference on forward naivete we will contrast advance and immediate forecasts. In order to draw inference on backwards naivete we will contrast advance and immediate recollections.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Advanced and Immediate effort allocations, forecasted effort allocations, and recalled effort allocations are collected within subject in a longitudinal experimental design. Subjects' choices, forecasts, and recollections are used to draw inference on present bias, forward naivete, and backward naivete. For each object of interest, inference is drawn by contrasting advanced and immediate decisions within subjects. For example, advance choices will be contrasted with immediate choices to study present bias. All subjects make all forms of decisions and so provide both the advanced and immediate choices necessary for inference, serving as both control and treatment.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Computer randomization of wage rates for different types of choices.
Randomization Unit
Individual.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
At least 125 individuals to be recruited.
Sample size: planned number of observations
Each individual provides a number of choices (70 total), such that total choice-level observations will be at least 70*125 = 8750.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Variation is within subjects, leading to 125 individuals in each type of choice. Comparison will be made across different types of choices.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
See analysis plan.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Caltech
IRB Approval Date
2026-03-10
IRB Approval Number
IR26-1618A
Analysis Plan

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