The Power of Format: Central Bank Communication and Firms’ Inflation Expectations

Last registered on April 14, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Power of Format: Central Bank Communication and Firms’ Inflation Expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018344
Initial registration date
April 11, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 14, 2026, 9:15 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Turkey
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Emrehan Aktug
Affiliation
Sabanci University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Okan Akarsu
PI Affiliation
CBRT
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PI Name
Huzeyfe Torun
PI Affiliation
CBRT
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Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2026-01-19
End date
2026-02-20
Keywords
Firms & Productivity
Additional Keywords
Communication, Central Bank, Inflation Expectations
JEL code(s)
E12; E24; E31; E52
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study examines how the format of central bank communication shapes firms’ inflation expectations. We conduct a randomized controlled trial in which firms are exposed to the same disinflationary message from the Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, together with the Central Bank’s inflation forecast, delivered in four different formats: text only, text with photo, video, and text with video. All communication treatments lead firms to revise their inflation expectations downward, showing that central bank communication has a significant causal effect on firms’ beliefs. At the same time, the effectiveness of communication depends strongly on the mode of delivery. Video and text-plus-video treatments generate the largest declines in inflation expectations, text-plus-photo has a more limited effect, and text-only communication is the least effective format. These findings highlight that expectation management depends not only on message content but also on how the message is delivered. More broadly, the results suggest that richer and more direct forms of communication can substantially strengthen the transmission of central bank guidance to firms in a high-inflation environment.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Akarsu, Okan, Emrehan Aktug and Huzeyfe Torun. 2026. "The Power of Format: Central Bank Communication and Firms’ Inflation Expectations." AEA RCT Registry. April 14. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18344-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
General publicly available information on inflation forecasts delivered in various communication formats
Intervention (Hidden)
We provide firms with publicly available information about inflation forecasts. The information RCT is designed to shift firms’ inflation expectations by delivering targeted information in different communication formats. Firms are randomly assigned to one of four treatment groups, each containing approximately 250 observations. All groups receive the same publicly available statement, but in different formats: only text, text plus picture, only video, or video plus text. Questions about price and wage changes over the past 12 months are asked before the treatment, while all remaining questions are asked after the treatment.

The statement provided to firms is as follows:

“For the end of 2026, our forecasts indicate that inflation will fall to between 13 percent and 19 percent.”

Treatment 1: “Only Text”
Treatment 2: “Text + Picture”
Treatment 3: “Video”
Treatment 4: “Video + Text”
Intervention Start Date
2026-01-19
Intervention End Date
2026-02-20

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Firms' Inflation Expectations
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Firms' Behavior
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We implement a survey of Turkish firms in which random subsets of respondents receive information about publicly available inflation expectations in different communication formats. The resulting exogenously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect decisions and expectations of firms' managers relative to those in a control group.
Experimental Design Details
We conduct a survey of Turkish firms in which randomly selected subsets of respondents receive publicly available information about inflation expectations. The exogenous variation in inflation expectations generated by this design allows us to assess how different information formats shape expectations and, in turn, affect the decisions of firm managers relative to those in the control group.
Randomization Method
Randomization by computer.
Randomization Unit
Individual (firm managers)
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
~1200 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
~1200 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
240
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials