Accelerating Residential Heat Pump Adoption

Last registered on April 29, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Accelerating Residential Heat Pump Adoption
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018406
Initial registration date
April 22, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 29, 2026, 3:30 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Teevrat Garg
Affiliation
UCSD
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-05-01
End date
2027-07-01
Keywords
Environment & Energy
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
In partnership with a U.S. municipal government and its local electric utility, we conduct a randomized controlled trial embedded in the City's heat pump incentive program to evaluate how subsidy levels affect adoption of air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) among general-population and low- and moderate-income (LMI) households. Randomization occurs at the address level and claimable within a time-limited window. General-population and LMI addresses are each randomized between two subsidy arms, with LMI eligibility determined through the City's existing income-verification procedures. Primary outcomes are take-up of the assigned subsidy with installation of a qualifying ASHP, and time-to-installation from first portal entry. Secondary outcomes include post-installation electricity consumption from utility billing data and endline survey measures of cost perceptions, beliefs about heat pump performance, and coordination costs.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Garg, Teevrat. 2026. "Accelerating Residential Heat Pump Adoption." AEA RCT Registry. April 29. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18406-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The study is embedded in a U.S. municipal residential heat pump incentive program, administered in partnership with the local electric utility. The program offers rebates toward the purchase and installation of qualifying air-source heat pumps (ASHPs). To implement the RCT, we developed an online subsidy-allocation portal in collaboration with the City and the utility. When a contractor or household enters a residential address into the portal, the address is standardized. On first entry, the address is randomly assigned to one of two subsidy offers. Assignment is deterministic at the address level — subsequent entries of the same address return the same offer, preventing re-randomization.
Intervention Start Date
2026-09-01
Intervention End Date
2027-05-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Take-up of the assigned subsidy, defined as completion of a qualifying air-source heat pump installation at the assigned address within the utilization window, verified through program administrative records.
Time-to-installation, defined as the number of days between first portal entry (address assignment) and the date of completed installation, conditional on take-up.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Electricity usage from utility billing records (pre- and post-installation electricity consumption)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study is a randomized controlled trial embedded in an existing municipal heat pump incentive program. Randomization is implemented through an online subsidy portal developed with the City and the local electric utility. When a contractor or household enters a residential address, the portal standardizes the address, and, on first entry, randomly assigns the address to one of two subsidy offers within that group. The assigned offer is displayed to the user immediately.

Randomization is stratified by population group. Assignment is deterministic at the address level: any subsequent entry of the same address — including formatting variations — returns the originally assigned offer, preventing re-randomization or selection into treatment. Income eligibility for the LMI group is verified through the City's existing procedures and is unchanged by the study.

Outcome data will be drawn from program administrative records (take-up and installation timing), utility billing records (post-installation electricity consumption), and an incentivized endline survey of both adopters and non-adopters.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
As part of the portal
Randomization Unit
Household/application
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
N/A
Sample size: planned number of observations
Because enrollment stops when the budget cap is reached, the total number of households randomized is not fixed in advance but instead depends on both installation rates and subsidy levels.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Because enrollment stops when the budget cap is reached, the total number of households randomized is not fixed in advance but instead depends on both installation rates and subsidy levels.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
UC San Diego
IRB Approval Date
2026-04-16
IRB Approval Number
814224
Analysis Plan