An Experimental Study of State-Dependent Preferences: The Case of Inflation

Last registered on May 04, 2026
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
An Experimental Study of State-Dependent Preferences: The Case of Inflation
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018495
Initial registration date
April 27, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 04, 2026, 7:56 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Yang TAN
Affiliation
renmin university of China
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2026-04-29
End date
2026-05-01
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study examines how people make decisions when outcomes depend on uncertain future events, and whether their preferences change depending on the state of the world. Participants complete a series of simple decision tasks in which they allocate points between two accounts. Which account determines their final payoff depends on a real-world economic indicator—the U.S. inflation rate (CPI). In some cases, payment depends on whether inflation is above or below a historical benchmark; in others, it depends on a feature that is effectively random (such as whether a digit is odd or even). The study investigates whether individuals treat outcomes differently when they are tied to meaningful economic states versus purely random events. This allows us to test for “state-dependent utility” .

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
TAN, Yang. 2026. "An Experimental Study of State-Dependent Preferences: The Case of Inflation." AEA RCT Registry. May 04. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18495-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2026-04-29
Intervention End Date
2026-05-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The main outcome variables are participants’ allocation choices between the two accounts in each decision round (i.e., the point combinations chosen along the budget line), which reflect their preferences under different uncertainty structures. Additional outcomes include certainty ratings for selected decisions and individual characteristics from the post-experiment questionnaire (e.g., risk attitudes and demographics)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The experiment consists of two incentivized decision tasks (22 rounds each) and a final questionnaire. In each round, participants choose a point allocation between two accounts along a linear trade-off. Payments depend on realizations of U.S. inflation (CPI), with treatments varying the source of uncertainty: (i) comparison of future or randomly drawn inflation to a historical median, and (ii) parity (odd/even) of the inflation decimal digit. One round is randomly selected for payment, and outcomes are incentive-compatible.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization is implemented by the experimental software using Python's random module in oTree. At the beginning of the experiment, each individual participant is independently assigned with equal probability to one of two between-subject conditions: Treatment 1, in which payment-relevant uncertainty is based on a randomly drawn historical U.S. CPI month from March 2025 to February 2026; or Treatment 2, in which payment-relevant uncertainty is based on the December 2026 U.S. CPI.

No stratification or blocking is used. In addition to the treatment assignment, the software independently randomizes, at the individual level, the order of the two tasks, the order of the 22 decision rounds within each task, the decision round selected for payment from the 44 total decisions, and the rounds selected for certainty questions.
Randomization Unit
The unit of randomization is the individual participant. Each participant is independently randomized into one of the two treatment conditions, and all additional order/payment randomizations are also conducted separately for each participant.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
300 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
300 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
300 individuals
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Lab of National Governance and Development, Renmin University of China
IRB Approval Date
2026-04-27
IRB Approval Number
RUCecon-202604-1
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials