Identification and Integration: Experimental Evidence from Refugees in Ethiopia

Treatment households will be invited to register for and receive the Ethiopian national ID ‘Fayda’. The ID offers unique proof of identity and includes an identification number and a quick response (QR) code, which is linked to biometric data (fingerprints, iris scan, and facial recognition). It enables instant electronic know-your-customer verification for government offices and private companies, which require reliable identification of their clients. Ethiopia is rolling out the national ID program to all residents across the country, and it is gradually becoming a pre-requisite for opening bank accounts, obtaining SIM cards, and accessing government services. For refugees, the Fayda number and QR code are printed on the back of their refugee identity card.

Enabling refugees to reliably identify themselves with an established national document is predicted to (1) ease access to financial and mobile services, (2) ease access to government services, including healthcare, education, and social services, and (3) simplify the administrative processes related to applying for work and business permits, as well as legally travel outside of the refugee sites.

In our study sites, treatment households are randomly selected to be offered their IDs early in the program roll-out, while control group households will be invited to register for their IDs a minimum of 6 months later, as the program scales up. Given the national scale of the ID program, individuals in control group households might pursue IDs independently, while individuals in treatment group households may refuse the ID.

2025-11-10

2026-08-31

We organise our primary and secondary hypotheses on the impact of early access to Fayda IDs into three main themes (A, E, S). Primary outcome groups by theme include:
A. Reduction of administrative barriers: Public or private services accessed; Mobility outside the camp
E. Economic integration: Financial inclusion; Labor force participation
S. Social integration: Sense of belonging; Interaction with host community

The pre-analysis plan provides additional details, including the specific hypotheses and outcome measures associated with each group and its components.

For each outcome group, we will construct an index following Kling, Liebman and Katz (2007).

Secondary outcome groups are:
(A) Transaction frictions when using services
(E) Financial resilience, income, living standards
(S) Subjective wellbeing, social connectedness, trust, intra-household decision-making

For each outcome group, we will construct an index following Kling, Liebman and Katz (2007).

The population of interest comprises registered refugee households living in three refugee camps across Ethiopia, specifically in the Afar, Somali, and Gambella regions. The sample is representative of the refugee population in these sites. The study may expand to additional sites in the future.

This study employs household-level randomisation across registered refugee households, split evenly between treatment and control groups. Randomisation is stratified by study sites, which provide different hosting environments in terms of economic opportunities and integration with the local communities.

The treatment consists of inviting refugee households to register for a Fayda national ID. The study employs a phase-in design in which the treatment group receives their Fayda ID at least six months prior to the control group. All households, including the control group, will eventually receive an ID.

Baseline data collection took place between May and July 2025, with treatment randomization following immediately after. Treatment implementation began in November 2025, while endline data collection begins in May 2026. Data collections are implemented through in-person surveys.

Intention to treat and treatment on the treated effects will be estimated for primary and secondary outcomes, and heterogeneous treatment effects by study site, respondent gender, and baseline vulnerability will be analyzed.

Not available

Randomisation done in office by a computer using Stata random number generator. The randomization protocol was agreed on with the Government of Ethiopia Refugees and Returnees Services who are implementing the intervention.

Randomisation occurs at the household-level and is stratified by study site.

No

N/A – not a cluster randomised design.

Target sample size of 3,500 refugee households across three sites.

Target sample size of 1,750 households receiving the treatment, and 1,750 households in the control (across sites).