Identifying the Marginal Propensity to Invest

Last registered on May 11, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Identifying the Marginal Propensity to Invest
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018547
Initial registration date
May 04, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 11, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Lukas Hack
Affiliation
ETH Zurich / University of Mannheim
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Davud Rostam-Afschar
PI Affiliation
University of Mannheim
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2026-04-28
End date
2027-12-31
Keywords
Finance & Microfinance, Firms & Productivity
Additional Keywords
Marginal propensity to invest, firm investment, capital stock
JEL code(s)
D22, D24, D25, E22, E62, H25
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We propose to measure the marginal propensity to invest among German firms via survey-based hypothetical scenarios.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Hack, Lukas and Davud Rostam-Afschar. 2026. "Identifying the Marginal Propensity to Invest." AEA RCT Registry. May 11. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18547-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Firms receive a hypothetical windfall or loss, which they must allocate to spending categories. Additionally, firms must allocate the implied investment expenses intertemporally.
Intervention Start Date
2026-04-28
Intervention End Date
2026-12-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Allocation of funds, intertemporal investment allocation
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Revenue, profit margin, intermediate input share, capital stock, past investment, planned investment, inflation expectations, real GDP growth expectations, financial situation (Likert scale), liquidity, credit lines, industry, firm age
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We provide the firms with a hypothetical scenario. The scenario is varied randomly across participants. The scenarios differ by the size of the shock and this is the only difference across scenarios.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer. We randomly assign a quarter of participants to each of the following shock sizes: small positive shock, large positive shock, small negative shock, large negative shock
Randomization Unit
Survey participant, i.e., managers of German firms
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1500 firms
Sample size: planned number of observations
1500 respondents, i.e., 1 respondent per cluster
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
375 respondents per scenario
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan