Risk-sharing during crisis: randomized relief and entrepreneurial outcomes in a debt market

Last registered on May 11, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Risk-sharing during crisis: randomized relief and entrepreneurial outcomes in a debt market
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018585
Initial registration date
May 08, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 11, 2026, 9:23 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Apoorv Gupta
Affiliation
Dartmouth College
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Filippo Mezzanotti
PI Affiliation
Northwestern University
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PI Name
Jonathan Zinman
PI Affiliation
Dartmouth College
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PI Name
Christopher Eaglin
PI Affiliation
Duke University
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2026-04-30
End date
2027-03-31
Keywords
Finance & Microfinance, Firms & Productivity
Additional Keywords
Crisis, Relief
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Small Businesses, Input Cost Shocks
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We randomize different forms of relief to small business borrowers during a period of crisis (defined in our setting as a substantial increase in input cost) to provide evidence on how to use contracting to recover from a common (cost) shock. Our Lender provides collateralized credit to business owners that operate a transportation business in South Africa. In light of the large gas price increase in 2026, we collaborate with the Lender to provide borrowers with either unconditional relief; or conditional relief --- conditional either on effort exertion or on loan repayment. The objective of the experiment is to study the impact of different forms of relief on short-run versus long-run borrower repayment and effort.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Eaglin, Christopher et al. 2026. "Risk-sharing during crisis: randomized relief and entrepreneurial outcomes in a debt market." AEA RCT Registry. May 11. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18585-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2026-05-01
Intervention End Date
2026-09-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
(1) Loan performance: First, we plan to examine outcomes that capture the repayment activity by borrowers. This includes (i) how much borrowers pay month by month; (ii) total arrears; (iii) whether the borrower is current on the loan; (iv) scaled arrears (=arrears/ required monthly payment); (v) a summary index of above measures.

(2) Effort Outcomes: Second, we plan to examine the outcomes of firm’s effort measure during the intervention period. For instance, using the lender’s proprietary data on borrowers’ driving, we can the distance driven, hours driven, the time on job, and the number of days worked.

(3) Repayment and borrowings from other debt sources: We will analyze spillovers on other forms of borrowings reported in the credit bureau data. This includes any adverse flag, overdue amount of debt, late payments, new account openings, the share of borrowings overdue, total borrowings, and defaults on those debts.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

We may also analyze the following outcomes, depending on data availability and power permitting.

(4) Speeding: We will measure the share of distance driven above 100 km/h of the total distance driven by operators on roads and freeways with a speed limit of 80 km/h or more, or in general. Both measures come from GPS devices installed in the vehicles.

(5) Insurance claims: We will also study how speeding affects insurance claims filed with our partner insurer.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Currently hidden, to be made public after intervention period
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer.
Randomization Unit
The unit of randomization is at the loan account level.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
N/A
Sample size: planned number of observations
4,656 loan accounts
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1,163 loan accounts ( control )
1,166 loan accounts; ( T1 )
1,162 loan accounts; ( T2 )
1,165 loan accounts; ( T3 )
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Duke University Campus Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
2023-07-22
IRB Approval Number
2023-0481
Analysis Plan