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Field
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
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Before
1,163 loan accounts ( control )
1,166 loan accounts; ( T1 )
1,162 loan accounts; ( T2 )
1,165 loan accounts; ( T3 )
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After
Phase 1:
1,163 loan accounts ( control )
1,166 loan accounts; ( T1 )
1,162 loan accounts; ( T2 )
1,165 loan accounts; ( T3 )
Phase 2:
302 loan accounts ( control )
306 loan accounts; ( T1 )
305 loan accounts; ( T2 )
307 loan accounts; ( T3 )
No loans are common to the two phases.
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Field
Intervention (Hidden)
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Before
The experiment focuses on a set of small businesses (“borrowers”) with our partner lender (“company”). The typical firm is a closely-held small business with one owner-operated vehicle or a small fleet, and has vehicle financed our partner lender. The lender decided to run the experiment on 4,656 loan accounts. The randomization aims to obtain four equally split samples across the control and three treatment conditions (described below). The unit of randomization is at the loan account level.
The experiment randomly assigns 4,656 firms to receive some form of relief. The relief will be in the form of a cash voucher and will be distributed in the middle of the month to clients. The payment will happen automatically for all accounts (C and T1 below), and for the accounts that meet the qualifying criteria in the previous month (T2 and T3 below). The firms will be randomized into one of the four groups:
(1) Control: receive an unconditional relief of R100
(2) Treatment 1: receive an unconditional relief of R1,850 (diesel), R550 (petrol)
(3) Treatment 2: relief to be provided conditional on meeting driving criteria. For every day driven > 50 km (diesel) and > 25 km (petrol), the firm will receive relief of R74/day (diesel) and relief of R22/day (petrol). The maximum relief that a firm can receive during a month is R1,850 (diesel), R550 (petrol), achievable upon driving 25 days in month above the driving threshold.
(4) Treatment 3: R1,850 (diesel), R550 (petrol) relief to be provided if the firm paid the required monthly loan payment for the last month in full.
The maximum total cost of the relief program to the partner is about 1 million USD.
We stratify by three variables: (1) 1(whether the vehicle’s engine runs on diesel or petrol); (2) whether the borrower has access to a revolving credit line at baseline; (3) whether the baseline loan to value (LTV) is less than or equal to median LTV in the sample. In total, we have 8 strata.
The lender will manage communications with the customers. The experiment is structured in a way that customers are automatically enrolled in the program. Customers will first receive the communication about their enrollment into the offer via an SMS. The message will contain a link to a PDF describing the details of their offer: the relief amount for (C and T1) and the required conditions (for T2 and T3). A full-time hire will be available to answer any questions that firms might have about the offer, which they can ask by calling a number mentioned in the SMS and the PDF document.
Customers will also be sent an update per month informing them of their relief: the relief amount for (all groups) and whether they have met the required conditions (for T2 and T3). The update will be sent early in the month, and the relief will be disbursed in their rewards account mid-month. Relief will be provided for a period of at least 2 months, with the possibility of extension for another 1-2 months, beginning in May 2026. The conditions are measured based on the borrowers’ behavior the previous months. For example, to receive the reward in T2 in May, we review the driving behavior in April. By the same token, to receive the reward in T3 in May, we review the payment by April.
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After
The experiment focuses on a set of small businesses (“borrowers”) with our partner lender (“company”). The typical firm is a closely-held small business with one owner-operated vehicle or a small fleet, and has vehicle financed our partner lender. The lender decided to run the experiment on 4,656 loan accounts in Phase-1, and 1, 220 accounts were considered in Phase-2 (details below). Within each phase, the randomization aims to obtain four equally split samples across the control and three treatment conditions (described below). The unit of randomization is at the loan account level.
The experiment randomly assigns 4,656 firms to receive some form of relief in Phase 1 and 1,220 firms to receive some form of relief in Phase 2. Within each phase, the relief will be in the form of a cash voucher and will be distributed in the middle of the month to clients. The payment will happen automatically for all accounts (C and T1 below), and for the accounts that meet the qualifying criteria in the previous month (T2 and T3 below). The firms will be randomized into one of the four groups:
(1) Control: receive an unconditional relief of R100
(2) Treatment 1: receive an unconditional relief of R1,850 (diesel), R550 (petrol)
(3) Treatment 2: relief to be provided conditional on meeting driving criteria. For every day driven > 50 km (diesel) and > 25 km (petrol), the firm will receive relief of R74/day (diesel) and relief of R22/day (petrol). The maximum relief that a firm can receive during a month is R1,850 (diesel), R550 (petrol), achievable upon driving 25 days in month above the driving threshold.
(4) Treatment 3: R1,850 (diesel), R550 (petrol) relief to be provided if the firm paid the required monthly loan payment for the last month in full.
The maximum total cost of the relief program to the partner is about 1.25 million USD.
We stratify by three variables, separately for each phase of the experiment: (1) 1(whether the vehicle’s engine runs on diesel or petrol); (2) whether the borrower has access to a revolving credit line at baseline; (3) whether the baseline loan to value (LTV) is less than or equal to median LTV in the sample. In total, we have 8 strata per phase.
The lender will manage communications with the customers. The experiment is structured in a way that customers are automatically enrolled in the program. Customers will first receive the communication about their enrollment into the offer via an SMS. The message will contain a link to a PDF describing the details of their offer: the relief amount for (C and T1) and the required conditions (for T2 and T3). A full-time hire will be available to answer any questions that firms might have about the offer, which they can ask by calling a number mentioned in the SMS and the PDF document.
Customers will also be sent an update per month informing them of their relief: the relief amount for (all groups) and whether they have met the required conditions (for T2 and T3). The update will be sent early in the month, and the relief will be disbursed in their rewards account mid-month. For Phase 1, which begins in May, relief will be provided for a period of 3 months. For Phase 2, which begins in third week of June, relief will be provided for a period of at least 2 months beginning in July 2026, with the possibility of extension for another one month. The conditions are measured based on the borrowers’ behavior the previous months. For example, to receive the reward in T2 in May, we review the driving behavior in April. By the same token, to receive the reward in T3 in May, we review the payment by April.
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