The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers: Pre-Specifying Structural Analyses for Malawi

Last registered on May 19, 2026
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers: Pre-Specifying Structural Analyses for Malawi
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018604
Initial registration date
May 15, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 19, 2026, 9:29 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Malawi
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Dennis Egger
Affiliation
Oxford University
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Joseph Kaboski
PI Affiliation
University of Notre Dame
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Douglas Gollin
PI Affiliation
Tufts University
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Edward Miguel
PI Affiliation
UC Berkeley
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Miriam Laker
PI Affiliation
IPA
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2025-03-01
End date
2028-12-31
Keywords
Agriculture, Behavior, Electoral, Finance & Microfinance, Firms & Productivity, Gender, Governance, Health, Labor, Other, Welfare
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
This is a repository for the collaboration between the Oxford Center for Macro-Experimental Development, GiveDirectly, STEG, and BITSS collaboration for studying the macroeconomic effects of large-scale unconditional cash transfers implemented by GiveDirectly in Malawi.

As part of the collaboration, teams of macro-development researchers work on structural analyses of the macroeconomic impacts of cash transfers. Here is a rough timeline:

1. Jul 2025: All teams visited study sites in Malawi ex-ante and were able to suggest/propose experimental design and questionnaire additions.
2. Jan - Apr 2026: All teams were shared baseline data on housheolds, enterprises, markets, and prices from Chiradzulu District.

Teams are encouraged to pre-register structural analyses as a condition for getting access to endline data collected after transfers rolled out. These 'structural pre-analysis plans' may look different for each team, but should at minimum specify
a) a measure of success (e.g. quantitative moments to target, model predictions, model-derived hypotheses, etc.)
b) a method/test for adjudicating success (e.g. a formal statistical test, goodness-of-fit measure, a quantitative range, etc.)

The main page for the trial (with more details) is here: https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/15292
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Egger, Dennis et al. 2026. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers: Pre-Specifying Structural Analyses for Malawi." AEA RCT Registry. May 19. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18604-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
GiveDirectly will provide universal, unconditional cash transfers of approximately 550 USD to all eligible households across different study sites across Malawi.
Intervention Start Date
2025-03-01
Intervention End Date
2026-08-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
This will depend on the objective of each team's model.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Each team will defined their own 'measure of success', depending on the goal of the model. This could be, e.g. a core moment to target (such as the fiscal multiplier, or the GDP growth rate, etc.).

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The roll-out of cash transfers will be randomized across geographic units with a random saturation design, including villages (the lowest unit of randomization), GVHs (groups of villages), and traditional authorities (groups of GVHs). The attached/linked document has more information.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
randomization is by computer.
Randomization Unit
villages, GVHs, and TAs
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
In Chiradzulu (the first district), the trial will take place across 900 villages, 113 GVHs, and 10 TAs:
a) in high-(low-) saturation TAs, 80% (40%) of GVHs will be treated.
b) in treated GVHs, 67% of villages will be treated
c) in treated villages, all adults are treated
- in treated GV

The trial will grow over time and reach additional districts in the future. The randomization design is likely to change somewhat in future districts (e.g. randomization only in larger units such as GVHs or TAs).
Sample size: planned number of observations
In Chiradzulu, we will collect data on: - all households in a census (approx. 100k) - surveys from a sample of housheolds (approx. 11-12k) - a census of all enterprises in the district (approx. 20 - 30k) - enterprise surveys with a random subset of enterprises (approx. 10-15k) - censuses and price surveys for approx. 100 goods and services across all 80 markets in Chiradzulu
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
see above.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
MALAWI NATIONAL COMMITTEE ON RESEARCH IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES AND HUMANITIES
IRB Approval Date
2025-04-23
IRB Approval Number
P.01-25-951
Analysis Plan