The role of a motivational account and of outcome difficulty in overconfidence about personal saving behavior

Last registered on May 18, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The role of a motivational account and of outcome difficulty in overconfidence about personal saving behavior
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018624
Initial registration date
May 15, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 18, 2026, 7:48 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Carlijn Prins
Affiliation
Utrecht University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-05-31
End date
2028-10-31
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
Saving behavior, overconfidence, motivation, overplacement
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The goal of this research is to investigate biased beliefs about personal saving behavior. Biased beliefs in this study are operationalized as overplacement (one of three forms of overconfidence), comparing an individual’s beliefs about personal saving behavior to an individual’s beliefs about saving behavior of others. We will investigate whether the difficulty of the saving outcome affects the level of overplacement. Moreover, we will investigate whether outcome difficulty interacts with the perceived importance of saving. We designed an online experiment where the difficulty of the savings outcomes are systematically varied. The results of the experiment will have relevance for understanding the robustness of overplacement about saving outcomes, and for understanding the role motivation plays in overplacement about personal saving behavior.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Prins, Carlijn. 2026. "The role of a motivational account and of outcome difficulty in overconfidence about personal saving behavior." AEA RCT Registry. May 18. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18624-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We will conduct an online experiment where participants are randomly assigned to one of two conditions: a condition where the saving outcomes are relatively easy to accomplish, and a condition where the saving outcomes are more difficult to accomplish.
Intervention Start Date
2026-06-01
Intervention End Date
2026-07-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Placement about personal saving behavior

Respondents' beliefs about personal saving behavior of the respondent themselves (self-beliefs)

Respondents' beliefs about saving behavior of peers (other-beliefs)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Placement will be defined as the difference between beliefs about self and beliefs about others. In both the easy and difficult condition, respondents will answer 2 items about their own saving behavior and 2 items about others’ saving behavior. We will calculate one placement measure for the easy condition and one for the difficult condition if Cronbach's alpha for the self-beliefs and for the other-beliefs is larger than 0.61.

The placement variable will be constructed such that a value larger than zero indicates overplacement (i.e. self beliefs are more optimistic than other beliefs), and a value smaller than zero indicates underplacement (i.e. self beliefs are more pessimistic than other beliefs). A value of zero indicates no bias (i.e. self beliefs are equal to other beliefs).


Self-beliefs measure (easy condition):
1. How likely is it that you will save on average of 5% of your income over the next 12 months?
2. How likely is it that your savings will increase by 5% over the next 12 months?
On an 11-point scale ranging from ‘0, not likely at all’ to ‘10, very likely’


Other-beliefs measure (easy condition):
1. How likely is it that they will save on average of 5% of their income over the next 12 months?
2. How likely is it that their savings will increase by 5% over the next 12 months?
On an 11-point scale ranging from ‘0, not likely at all’ to ‘10, very likely’

Self-beliefs measure (difficult condition):
1. How likely is it that you will save on average of 25% of your income over the next 12 months?
2. How likely is it that your savings will increase by 25% over the next 12 months?
On an 11-point scale ranging from ‘0, not likely at all’ to ‘10, very likely’

Other-beliefs measure (difficult condition):
1. How likely is it that they will save on average of 25% of their income over the next 12 months?
2. How likely is it that their savings will increase by 25% over the next 12 months?
On an 11-point scale ranging from ‘0, not likely at all’ to ‘10, very likely’

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Perceived importance of saving

Control variables, such as socio-economic and demographic variables (such as age, gender, income, level of education, living situation, savings).
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Perceived importance of saving will be calculated by averaging the scores on two items to measure the importance of saving.

Items used:

How important do you think it is to save money?
How important do you think it is to have savings?

On an 11-point scale ranging from ‘0, not important at all’ to ‘10, very important’.

We will calculate one perceived importance construct if Cronbach's alpha is larger than 0.61.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We will conduct an online experiment where participants are randomly assigned to one of two conditions: a condition where the saving outcomes are relatively easy to accomplish, and a condition where the saving outcomes are more difficult to accomplish.

Our experiment will be part of an online survey held amongst Dutch adults. The survey is about general wellbeing. Our experiment will come after a block of questions about general wellbeing. Respondents will be recruited via consumer panel Motivaction and respondents will receive a small financial compensation for their participation, which is being paid by Motivation. The experiment will be conducted once.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
We randomize at the individual level (respondent), randomization is done by the survey software.
Randomization Unit
We randomize at the individual level (respondent)
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
No clusters.
Sample size: planned number of observations
We aim to recruit around 1800 Dutch adults aged of 18 up to and including 80 years.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Our aim is that respondents are evenly distributed among the two experimental conditions. That would mean around 900 respondents in the easy condition and around 900 in the difficult condition.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

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