The Political Economy of Resilience: Climate Information and State Effectiveness

Last registered on June 11, 2026
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Political Economy of Resilience: Climate Information and State Effectiveness
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018628
Initial registration date
May 25, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 11, 2026, 7:59 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Primary Investigator

Name
Julian Dyer
Affiliation
University of Exeter
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-06-15
End date
2027-01-30
Keywords
Other
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This project will explore the political economy of government effectiveness and climate-resilient policymaking.
We use a randomized field experiment in Turkana County, Kenya to test whether provision of climate information to government officials leads to better-informed officials and better policymaking in the face of climate shocks.
We also explore more generally how information flows within bureaucratic hierarchies, and how bureaucratic incentives shape decisionmaking and communication.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Dyer, Julian. 2026. "The Political Economy of Resilience: Climate Information and State Effectiveness." AEA RCT Registry. June 11. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18628-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The main intervention in this project is the rollout of a Climate Information System where Turkana County Government officials have access to detailed information on current conditions and forecasts for the season.
Intervention Start Date
2026-07-01
Intervention End Date
2026-08-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
1) How well-informed government officials are about current and forecasted conditions.
2) Whether government officials use climate information in their planning/decisions.
3) The quality of decisionmaking and proposed plans.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
See analysis plan.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
1) Whether supervisor visibility makes officials choose less-costly interventions with more positive spillovers that align with government policy.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
In this project we will implement a randomized experiment conducted across the staff of the Turkana County Government (TCG).
clustered at the local offices who represent the lowest - or closest to the frontline - layer of TCG officials, who make decisions themselves and provide information and recommendations that feeds into other decisions. We also include other officials of the TCG in the evaluation.

Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization in office by computer.
Randomization Unit
Randomization will take place at the level of the local Ward Climate Change Committee for this group of officials. For the supplementary sample of other TCG officials, randomization will be at the level of offices to reduce spillovers (e.g. the entire sub-county water ministry office will be a single unit of randomization).

Randomization will be stratified by cluster type (WCCC or other office of TCG).
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
50 offices / local committees.
Sample size: planned number of observations
50 local clusters with 10 individuals each. This gives 500 individuals, and each will respond to 3-5 scenarios. This will give at least 1,500 policy proposals to evaluate.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
25 clusters or 250 individuals in treatment and 25 clusters or 250 individuals in control.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
See analysis plan.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information