Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections

Last registered on May 20, 2026
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018646
Initial registration date
May 14, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 20, 2026, 7:08 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Primary Investigator

Name
Jesse Shapiro
Affiliation
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Vincent Pons
PI Affiliation
Harvard Business School
PI Name
Richard Calvo
PI Affiliation
UC Berkeley

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-05-18
End date
2030-06-30
Keywords
Electoral
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We have written a detailed pre-analysis plan that we will release on study completion. We have omitted the abstract here so that it becomes visible when the study is complete.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Calvo, Richard, Vincent Pons and Jesse Shapiro. 2026. "Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections." AEA RCT Registry. May 20. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18646-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We have written a detailed pre-analysis plan that we will release on study completion. We have omitted the description here so that it becomes visible when the study is complete.
Intervention Start Date
2026-05-18
Intervention End Date
2026-08-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
We have written a detailed pre-analysis plan that we will release on study completion. We have omitted the information here so that it becomes visible when the study is complete.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
We have written a detailed pre-analysis plan that we will release on study completion. We have omitted the information here so that it becomes visible when the study is complete.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
We have written a detailed pre-analysis plan that we will release on study completion. We have omitted the information here so that it becomes visible when the study is complete.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
We have written a detailed pre-analysis plan that we will release on study completion. We have omitted the information here so that it becomes visible when the study is complete.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We have written a detailed pre-analysis plan that we will release on study completion. We have omitted the information here so that it becomes visible when the study is complete.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
We have written a detailed pre-analysis plan that we will release on study completion. We have omitted the information here so that it becomes visible when the study is complete.
Randomization Unit
We have written a detailed pre-analysis plan that we will release on study completion. We have omitted the information here so that it becomes visible when the study is complete.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
We have written a detailed pre-analysis plan that we will release on study completion. We have omitted the information here so that it becomes visible when the study is complete.
Sample size: planned number of observations
We have written a detailed pre-analysis plan that we will release on study completion. We have omitted the information here so that it becomes visible when the study is complete.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
We have written a detailed pre-analysis plan that we will release on study completion. We have omitted the information here so that it becomes visible when the study is complete.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
We have written a detailed pre-analysis plan that we will release on study completion. We have omitted the information here so that it becomes visible when the study is complete.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Harvard University-Area Committee on the Use of Human Subjects
IRB Approval Date
2026-05-14
IRB Approval Number
IRB26-0518
Analysis Plan

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information