Complexity and Choice under Risk

Last registered on June 03, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Complexity and Choice under Risk
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018785
Initial registration date
May 29, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 03, 2026, 9:15 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
David Wendle
Affiliation
Lund University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-06-05
End date
2026-09-30
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Uncertainty is part of most economic situations, and decision-making under uncertainty is one of the most well-studied topics in behavioral economics. A recent strand of research explores the role of complexity in decision-making under uncertainty, as complexity could be a driving force behind behavior in uncertain situations. This study provides causal evidence for the effect of complexity on decisions under risk.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Wendle, David. 2026. "Complexity and Choice under Risk." AEA RCT Registry. June 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18785-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2026-06-05
Intervention End Date
2026-06-06

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Safe choice.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Study participants face 25 separate binary choices between a lottery and a safe payment. The outcome for each choice task will be coded as a dummy variable, “safe choice”, that takes value 1 if the safe payment is chosen and 0 if the lottery is chosen.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Study participants face a set of incentivized binary choices between a lottery and a safe payment. The study uses a between-subjects design in which complexity is exogenously manipulated and the main outcome is measured as the fraction of safe choices.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Computer.
Randomization Unit
Individual.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1,000 participants.
Sample size: planned number of observations
1,000 participants.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
500 participants in the control group and 500 participants in the treatment group.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

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