Schooling and Human Capital Formation under Weather Stress: Experimental Evidence from Bangladesh

Last registered on June 29, 2026

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Schooling and Human Capital Formation under Weather Stress: Experimental Evidence from Bangladesh
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018828
Initial registration date
June 07, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 15, 2026, 1:57 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
June 29, 2026, 8:47 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Monash University

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2026-04-21
End date
2026-10-11
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The study examines whether a low-cost adaptation to recurrent weather events, specifically rain and radiant heat, can reduce student absenteeism. I implement a cluster-randomized controlled trial with around 2,000 students across 105 secondary schools. Schools are randomly assigned to the treatment or control group. In treatment schools, students receive a foldable umbrella plus a one-off information nudge designed to encourage regular use and reduce reallocation within households. The primary outcome is absenteeism on rainy instructional school days, constructed from school attendance registers and linked to daily rainfall data. Baseline and endline student surveys provide complementary outcomes on learning and wellbeing. The study provides evidence on a low-cost, scalable approach to mitigating weather-related disruptions to schooling.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Kayes, Imrul. 2026. "Schooling and Human Capital Formation under Weather Stress: Experimental Evidence from Bangladesh." AEA RCT Registry. June 29. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18828-1.2
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The intervention provides eligible grade 8 students with a foldable umbrella intended for daily commuting. The umbrella is lightweight, easy to carry with a built-in strap, and small enough (when folded) to fit in a school bag. The umbrella is accompanied by a light-touch information package consisting of two stickers intended to be placed in a visible location at home: (i) a reminder sticker (“Rain or shine, this umbrella is mine!”); and (ii) a brief note to parents stating that the umbrella is intended for the student’s use and should remain available to the child. None of these materials includes educational encouragement or messages about schooling.

The umbrellas were provided by the Sub-district Administrations from their annual development budget.
Intervention Start Date
2026-04-21
Intervention End Date
2026-10-11

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Absenteeism rate on rainy instructional school days.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The absenteeism rate is defined for each student as the number of rainy instructional school days absent divided by the total number of rainy instructional school days between the baseline and endline surveys.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Absenteeism on high-radiant-heat days
Seasonal sickness (self-reported)
Standardized test scores
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
School Selection
The study is a cluster-randomized controlled trial with randomization at the school level. A list of all registered schools was obtained from the District Education Office in Pabna. The list contains 325 secondary schools, of which 241 are located within the five study subdistricts.
Schools were considered ineligible if they met any of the following criteria:

1. The school was designated as a center for the Secondary School Certificate (SSC) public examination.
2. The school was single-sex (i.e., not co-educational);
3. The school had fewer than 200 enrolled students in total, or
4. The school was not a standard secondary school (i.e., it was a junior secondary school serving up to grade 8 or a higher secondary school serving up to grade 12).

From the eligible schools, 106 were randomly selected and subsequently assigned to either the treatment or control group. Randomization was conducted prior to baseline data collection.

Student Selection
Within each study school, the target population is Grade 8 students. Student eligibility was determined through a short screening survey administered to all, or nearly all, Grade 8 students present on the survey day. Students were eligible for inclusion if they met both of the following criteria:

1. The student walked to school or used a rickshaw van as the primary commuting mode; and
2. The student lived in a household with no more than one usable umbrella.

In treatment schools, I aimed to enroll approximately 30 eligible students per school. If more than 30 students were eligible in a treatment school, up to 30 students were randomly selected from the eligible list through an on-the-spot lottery. This cap was imposed because the number of umbrellas available for distribution was limited.

Data Collection

Baseline survey
To assess eligibility, I conducted a short paper survey consisting of three questions. The eligible students completed a structured survey in a classroom setting on a tablet computer. They also attended a standardized cognitive test covering English, mathematics, and general aptitude. In parallel, I administered a short school questionnaire to the headteachers to capture key school characteristics. I extracted the attendance data up to the survey date (Jan- April 2026) from the school records.

Endline survey
At the endline, I will re-survey students and headteachers. Students will complete a cognitive assessment comparable in structure and difficulty to the baseline test. There will also be a survey module on relevant behaviors and experiences over the study period.

During-intervention data
During the intervention period, I will collect implementation and monitoring data to assess treatment intensity and compliance. First, I will conduct unannounced school visits in both treatment and control schools to measure (i) student attendance on the day of the visit and (ii) umbrella use. I plan four visits per school: two during rainy days and two during high-radiant-heat days. Second, I will compile high-frequency attendance outcomes by digitizing school register data. Third, I will compile high-frequency weather data for the study area, including daily rainfall, daily temperature, and solar radiation. I will align these measures to the finest feasible geographic and temporal resolutions.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization was done at the office using Stata.
Randomization Unit
Randomization was done at the school level
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
105 schools
Sample size: planned number of observations
~2047 students
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
54 schools in the control group
51 schools in the treatment group
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
MDE of 0.2–0.25 SD in absenteeism on rainy instructional school days
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Monash University Human Research Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2026-04-20
IRB Approval Number
2026-49940-140842
Analysis Plan

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