Plan Recommendations in the Medicare Market: A Survey of Medicare Intermediaries

Last registered on June 15, 2026

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Plan Recommendations in the Medicare Market: A Survey of Medicare Intermediaries
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018834
Initial registration date
June 04, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 15, 2026, 9:52 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
UC Berkeley

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
UC Berkeley

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-06-09
End date
2026-10-15
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study seeks to understand how intermediaries in the Medicare market advise clients and make Medicare plan recommendations. We also evaluate how intermediaries respond to different consumer cues and measure broker beliefs about how much consumers value different Medicare plan attributes. The results inform a broader study of how intermediaries shape Medicare plan choice.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Kallus, Margaret and Elaine Shen. 2026. "Plan Recommendations in the Medicare Market: A Survey of Medicare Intermediaries." AEA RCT Registry. June 15. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18834-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
This project surveys licensed Medicare insurance intermediaries (agents/brokers) to better study how intermediaries interact with potential clients and form recommendations. The survey contains an embedded randomized experiment to better understand how intermediaries respond to various client cues and profiles. The survey also elicits agents' beliefs about how much value consumers place on the specific Medicare plan features that distinguish Medicare Advantage and Original Medicare plus Medigap. Finally, we ask about common practices in the Medicare market. The results inform a broader study of how intermediaries shape Medicare plan choice.
Intervention Start Date
2026-06-09
Intervention End Date
2026-10-15

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcomes are Medicare plan recommendations for different hypothetical client profiles and broker beliefs about how much different consumers would be willing to pay for different Medicare plans and plan attributes.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The Medicare plan recommendation is measured as whether the intermediary recommends Medicare Advantage or Original Medicare plus Medicare Supplement (Medigap). We also measure the intermediary's belief about how much different Medicare beneficiaries would be willing to pay (in $ monthly premium) to have Original Medicare plus Medigap instead of a $0-premium Medicare Advantage plan. This allows us to put the value of the plan recommendation in monetary terms.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary outcomes include the intermediary's assessment of how well each Medicare plan fits the consumer profile and confidence in their recommendation.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
We ask each intermediary to evaluate Medicare plan fit on a 0-100 scale, to explain their recommendation, and to report how confident they are in their recommendation on a 0-100 scale.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Licensed Medicare insurance intermediaries (agents and brokers) are recruited through a B2B commercial respondent panel. We may also recruit participants from other online survey platforms or distribute the survey through online forums commonly used by Medicare intermediaries. After screening and consent, respondents answer background questions about their business practices and evaluate a series of hypothetical client profiles. We also elicit beliefs about consumers' valuations of different Medicare plan features.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is implemented by a computer and is built into the online survey platform.
Randomization Unit
Randomization is at the individual level.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
N/A - randomization at the individual respondent level and there is no clustering.
Sample size: planned number of observations
300-500 individual responses.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
300-500 individual responses.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
UC Berkeley Committee for the Protection of Human Subjects
IRB Approval Date
2024-04-02
IRB Approval Number
2024-03-17226