The Feedback Fallacy: Praise, Criticism, and Regression to the Mean

Last registered on June 15, 2026

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Feedback Fallacy: Praise, Criticism, and Regression to the Mean
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018837
Initial registration date
June 05, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 15, 2026, 1:34 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
New Economic School (NES)

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
New Economic School (NES)
PI Affiliation
Almaty Management University
PI Affiliation
University of Amsterdam

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-06-08
End date
2026-10-01
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Does positive feedback boost effort, or does it lead to disappointment when performance regresses to the mean? Kahneman and Tversky (1973) argued that feedback providers - managers, teachers, parents - systematically misjudge the effectiveness of praise and criticism because they fail to account for natural mean reversion in performance. We design a laboratory experiment in a principal-agent environment to test how principals' feedback decisions are shaped by accumulated experience with prior feedback outcomes, and how those decisions in turn affect agents' effort.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Belianin, Alexis et al. 2026. "The Feedback Fallacy: Praise, Criticism, and Regression to the Mean." AEA RCT Registry. June 15. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18837-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Participants in the role of principal observe an agent's interim performance on a task and may send a verifiable feedback message. Agents subsequently choose effort for a final stage.

Intervention (Hidden)
The experiment is a computerized laboratory experiment implemented in z-Tree (Fischbacher, 2007). Each session involves a variable number of participants (typically between 16 and 24, depending on attendance), who are randomly assigned to the role of "employer" (principal) or "worker" (agent). Roles are fixed for the duration of the experiment. The experiment consists of 20 rounds, with random rematching of principal-agent pairs in each round (stranger matching).

Each round consists of two stages. In each stage, the agent chooses an effort level (integer from 0 to 10), which costs c(e) = 0.25e². The outcome of each stage (low, medium, or high performance) is determined stochastically by the agent's effort and task difficulty. Task difficulty is either easy (θ = 2/5, probability 1/2) or difficult (θ = 1/10, probability 1/2), drawn at the start of each round and constant across both stages. Neither party is told the task difficulty. The exact outcome probabilities are implemented in the z-Tree program.
Payoffs from outcomes: low performance yields 0 for the worker and 0 for the employer; medium performance yields 40 for the worker and 20 for the employer; high performance yields 100 for the worker and 120 for the employer.

After stage 1, the principal observes the outcome and may send a message. If the outcome is high, the principal can send "Well Done" or no message. If the outcome is low, the principal can send "Not Good Enough" or no message. If the outcome is medium, no message can be sent. After receiving any message or no message, the agent chooses effort for stage 2. At the end of each round, both parties learn the outcomes of both stages.
Intervention Start Date
2026-06-08
Intervention End Date
2026-10-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Principal's binary message choice conditional on a high first-stage outcome (Well Done vs. no message), modeled as a function of cumulative prior disappointing experience with praise.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
"Disappointing experience with praise" is constructed as the cumulative count of prior rounds in which the principal sent "Well Done" and the subsequent second-stage outcome was not high.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Agent's second-stage effort, modeled as a function of received feedback message and first-stage effort.
Frequency of performance reversion: proportion of cases in which a high first-stage outcome is followed by a non-high second-stage outcome, and proportion of cases in which a low first-stage outcome is followed by a non-low second-stage outcome.
Principal's binary message choice conditional on a low first-stage outcome (Not Good Enough vs. no message), as a function of cumulative prior encouraging experience with criticism.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Encouraging experience with criticism" is the cumulative count of prior rounds in which the principal sent "Not Good Enough" and the subsequent second-stage outcome was not low. All cumulative experience variables are lagged and constructed only from prior rounds.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Computerized laboratory experiment using a principal-agent design with 20 rounds and stranger matching. Participants are randomly assigned to fixed roles (principal or agent) at the session start. In each round, principals observe an agent's interim performance on a two-stage task and may send a verifiable feedback message before the agent chooses effort for the final stage. Sessions are conducted at the BELA laboratory at NES.
Experimental Design Details
The experiment is a computerized laboratory experiment implemented in z-Tree (Fischbacher, 2007). Each session involves a variable number of participants (typically between 16 and 24, depending on attendance), who are randomly assigned to the role of "employer" (principal) or "worker" (agent). Roles are fixed for the duration of the experiment. The experiment consists of 20 rounds, with random rematching of principal-agent pairs in each round (stranger matching).

Task structure. Each round consists of two stages. In each stage, the agent chooses an effort level (integer from 0 to 10), which costs c(e) = 0.25e². The outcome of each stage (low, medium, or high performance) is determined stochastically by the agent's effort and task difficulty. Task difficulty is either easy (θ = 2/5, probability 1/2) or difficult (θ = 1/10, probability 1/2), drawn at the start of each round and constant across both stages. Neither party is told the task difficulty. The exact outcome probabilities are implemented in the z-Tree program.
Payoffs from outcomes are as follows: low performance yields 0 for the worker and 0 for the employer; medium performance yields 40 for the worker and 20 for the employer; high performance yields 100 for the worker and 120 for the employer.

After stage 1, the principal observes the outcome and may send a message. If the outcome is high, the principal can send "Well Done" or no message. If the outcome is low, the principal can send "Not Good Enough" or no message. If the outcome is medium, no message can be sent. After receiving any message or no message, the agent chooses effort for stage 2. At the end of each round, both parties learn the outcomes of both stages.

Session procedures. We aim to recruit approximately 35–50 principals (70–100 participants in total), distributed across four to six sessions of variable size depending on attendance. Each session lasts approximately 40 minutes. At the beginning of each session, participants receive written instructions, which are also read aloud by the experimenter. Participants have an opportunity to ask questions privately. A practice round is conducted before the main experiment begins.

All subjects receive a guaranteed show-up fee of 550 ECU, plus performance-based earnings. At the end of each session, earnings are determined by a random selection of 4 out of 20 rounds. The exchange rate is 1 ECU = 1 RUB (Russian rubles). Expected earnings are approximately 900 RUB per participant for a 40-minute session.

After the experiment, subjects complete a short questionnaire collecting age, gender, field of study/major, optional GPA or GPA range, and questions about feedback strategies and attitudes toward positive and negative feedback. Principals are additionally asked about their perception of the effectiveness of their feedback.
Randomization Method
Random assignment by the z-Tree software at the session start (for role assignment) and at the start of each round (for pair rematching).

Randomization Unit
Individual within session for role assignment (principal vs. agent); pair-level for stranger matching across rounds. All participants within a session are exposed to the same procedure.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
4-6 experimental sessions
Sample size: planned number of observations
70-100 participants (35-50 principals, 35-50 agents); 20 rounds per participant, generating 1400-2000 round-level observations per role
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Not applicable: the study does not use between-subjects treatment arms. All participants experience the same protocol; variation in feedback received by agents is generated endogenously by principals' decisions conditional on observed outcomes.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Power analysis is conducted via simulation calibrated to pilot estimates of the relationship between cumulative disappointing experience with praise and the probability that a principal sends a "Well Done" message conditional on a high first-stage outcome. With the planned recruitment of 35–50 principals (70–100 participants in total) across approximately four to six sessions, the design achieves at least 80% power at α=0.05 to detect effects as small as 50% of the pilot point estimate. At N=40 principals, power exceeds 91% under a 50% effect-size attenuation and remains above 70% under a 75% attenuation (i.e., when the true effect is only one-quarter of the pilot estimate). With the planned recruitment of 35–50 principals, the design achieves at least 80% power at α=0.05 to detect effects as small as 50% of the pilot point estimate. At N=40 principals, power exceeds 91% under a 50% effect-size attenuation and remains above 70% under a 75% attenuation (i.e., when the true effect is only one-quarter of the pilot estimate).
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
New Economic School Committee on the Use of Human Subjects in Research
IRB Approval Date
2026-06-04
IRB Approval Number
А1214-04
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials