Experimental Design
This study evaluates how program design affects participation in and take-up of electric vehicle incentives among low- and moderate-income households. The trial has three main stages, each involving a distinct randomized comparison between treatment and control groups.
In the first stage, households are randomly assigned to receive different outreach messages describing alternative incentive amounts and allocation rules (treatment groups), while some households will not receive them (control group). This randomization allows us to estimate how program framing affects application behavior, applicant selection, and demand for the program. Applicants who choose to apply complete an intake form that includes demographic, transportation, and charging-access questions, as well as an incentive-compatible preference-elicitation exercise for an alternative rebate.
In the second stage, eligible applicants are randomly assigned either to receive an additional subsidy top-up (treatment group) or to receive only the baseline incentive for which they qualify (control group). Using application records, dealership data, and administrative data, we will estimate the effect of the top-up on vehicle purchase and leasing decisions, including whether households acquire a vehicle and the type of vehicle acquired.
In the third stage, among households receiving incentives, applicants are randomly assigned to disclose subsidy information during the vehicle transaction process, while in the control group information will not disclosed. Comparing negotiated vehicle prices across these groups will allow us to estimate subsidy pass-through and the extent to which incentives are captured by consumers versus dealerships.
Together, these stages provide evidence on participation in subsidy programs, the responsiveness of vehicle purchases to financial incentives, and the incidence of EV subsidies.