A Randomized Controlled Trial on Cannabis Legalization

Last registered on July 06, 2026

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
A Randomized Controlled Trial on Cannabis Legalization
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019000
Initial registration date
July 01, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 06, 2026, 7:36 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Zurich

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
PI Affiliation
ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
PI Affiliation
University of Michigan, School of Information
PI Affiliation
ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2026-05-27
End date
2034-10-20
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
We conduct a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in the canton of St.Gallen, Switzerland. The study evaluates the social and economic consequences of legal access to cannabis. We also study the causal effects of different distribution channels.

Registration Citation

Citation
Arman, Arto et al. 2026. "A Randomized Controlled Trial on Cannabis Legalization." AEA RCT Registry. July 06. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19000-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

Sponsors

Partner

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Eligible and consenting participants will be randomly allocated to one of two treatment groups or a control group to measure the causal effects of legal access to cannabis and different distribution channels.

Control group “NoAccess”: Participants in the control group will not have access to legal cannabis for the entire duration of the RCT and will therefore continue to rely on the illegal market to obtain cannabis.

Experimental group “Access”: Participants in the "Access" group are given legal access to cannabis products, which they can obtain in person from stores in the canton of St. Gallen run by the Swiss Cannabis Research Association (“Verein Cannabis Research”, VCR) and cooperating pharmacies for up to four years. Participants in the “Access” group gain access to a product range that mirrors products available on the illegal market. This includes cannabis flowers, cannabis resin (hashish), cannabis for consumption with vaporizers or vape pens, edibles, and oils.

Experimental group “ConvenientAccess”: Participants in the "ConvenientAccess" group are also given legal access to cannabis products, which they can obtain in person from the stores in the canton of St. Gallen run by VCR and cooperating pharmacies, just as participants in the "Access" group for up to four years. Additionally, participants in “ConvenientAccess” will be able to use home delivery to purchase their legal cannabis.
Intervention Start Date
2026-10-20
Intervention End Date
2031-10-20

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcomes are:
1. Cannabis consumption
2. Criminal behavior
3. Employment outcomes
4. Educational attainment


We analyze these primary outcomes within the scope of several separate work packages / projects, which focus on different research topics (see corresponding pre-analysis plans).
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
In addition, we collect the following secondary outcomes:

1. Consumption of other drugs (i.e., alcohol and illicit drugs)
2. Health and wellbeing
3. Cognitive capacity

For exploratory analyses we will also collect the following other outcomes:

4. Nicotine consumption
5. Social relationships
6. Self-evaluation
7. Perceived stigmatization of cannabis use
8. Perceived health risk of cannabis consumption
9. Customer satisfaction (convenience, price, product safety, and consumption experience)
10. Sources of illegal cannabis
11. Reasons for illegal-market purchases


For descriptive purposes, we will also collect cannabis samples from the illegal market from a subset of our participants to get laboratory measurements of cannabis quality.

Finally, we assess to what extent participants use home delivery, as opposed to in-store purchases in the ConvenientAccess treatment.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Context:

In May 2021, the Swiss government amended the Federal Narcotics Act (NarcA), enabling pilot trials for recreational cannabis under the BetmPV ordinance (BetmPV, 2021). Our study is part of a pilot trial in the Canton of St. Gallen and is conducted in collaboration with our field partner, the non-profit Cannabis Research Association (Verein Cannabis Research, VCR). VCR is responsible for the operational and legal aspects of the pilot trial, including establishing distribution channels and serving as the primary point of contact for study participants. The research team is responsible for the study design and independent scientific evaluation.
The pilot trial comprises two parts that draw on a common subject pool but address independent research questions.

Part 1 (preregistered separately as AEARCTR-0018999) precedes Part 2 and studies the WTP for legal cannabis.

Part 2 (this pre-registration) is a randomized controlled trial (RCT) that measures the social and economic effects of cannabis legalization (including the effects of different distribution channels), as detailed in this pre-registration

Recruitment and Eligibility:

Part 1 and Part 2 of the pilot trial draw from a common participant pool. Screening and eligibility assessment are conducted jointly for both parts and follow the inclusion and exclusion criteria defined in the federal regulation (Article 14 BetmPV, 2021).
The study uses a cohort-based rollout. Recruitment and eligibility screening occur continuously, but participation begins at fixed points in time. Cohorts are initiated approximately every two to three months. All participants who are considered eligible by a given cutoff date enter the study together as a cohort.
Within each cohort, participants are randomly assigned to either Part 1 or directly to Part 2. Assignment to Part 1 will continue until either (i) the overall target sample size of 2,500 participants who have completed both Survey 1 and Survey 2 is reached or (ii) two years of enrollment have elapsed. The remaining participants proceed directly to Part 2 without participating in Part 1. Part 1 has a duration of approximately ten weeks (including a four week buffer period). Only those participants who complete all required surveys in Part 1 are eligible to continue to Part 2. Part 1 includes a four week buffer period before the start of Part 2. Participants who are not assigned to Part 1 enter Part 2 after a waiting period of approximately ten weeks.
The share of participants randomly selected for Part 1 within each cohort depends on the number of eligible applicants. For Part 1 we aim for a total of 2,500 participants who have completed both Survey 1 and Survey 2. For Part 2 we aim to recruit 5,000 participants, with enrollment ending two years after the start of the first cohort. We additionally recruit up to 10 participants for an initial test cohort. This cohort will start before the official launch and is intended to test all study procedures. Data from the test cohort will not be included in the main analysis.


Randomization and Treatment Assignment:

In Part 2 participants will be randomly assigned (further details on randomization below) to one of the three experimental conditions.


Data Collection:

The analyses are primarily based on administrative data from VCR (consumption of legal cannabis) and administrative register data (labor market outcomes, criminal behavior, educational attainment). In addition, we will conduct regular online surveys administered through Qualtrics to measure the consumption of illegal cannabis and other substances. Additionally, we are collecting descriptive data on the development of illegal cannabis quality (assessed through laboratory analysis) over the course of the RCTs.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done by statistical software
Randomization Unit
We create clusters of participants and randomize at the unit of clusters to minimize spillovers (see Experimental Design for details).
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Due to the rolling admission process, we do not know the number and size of clusters ex ante
Sample size: planned number of observations
We target a sample size of 5,000 participants. Moreover, we are running another pilot trial in the canton of Zurich. While this pilot trial has a different focus, it also includes treatments NoAccess and Access. Depending on the work package we might also pool observations from both cantons for treatments NoAccess and Access.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
We target a sample size of 5,000 participants. The approximate number of participants per treatment arm are:
• Control group “NoAccess”: 1667 participants
• Experimental group “Access”: 1667 participants
• Experimental group “ConvenientAccess”: 1666 participants

Note that if we pool the data with our pilot trial in Zurich the sample size for Access and NoAccess might be larger.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Human Subjects Committee of the Faculty of Economics, Business Administration, and Information Technology, University of Zurich
IRB Approval Date
2025-10-21
IRB Approval Number
OEC IRB # 2025-098
IRB Name
ETH Zurich Ethics Commission
IRB Approval Date
2025-09-17
IRB Approval Number
25 ETHICS-268