Local Public Services, Belief Updating and Policy Preferences

Last registered on June 29, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Local Public Services, Belief Updating and Policy Preferences
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019062
Initial registration date
June 29, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 29, 2026, 9:45 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Konrad Doliesen
Affiliation
Hertie School
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-07-03
End date
2026-08-14
Keywords
Behavior, Electoral, Other
Additional Keywords
Local public services, belief updating, policy preferences, survey experiment
JEL code(s)
D83, D72, H75, H77
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This project examines how beliefs about local public services shape policy preferences, perceptions of public service deprivation, political attitudes, and behavioral intentions. To this end, I implement an information-provision experiment in Germany that exogenously shifts beliefs about local hospital accessibility. Respondents are randomly assigned to receive information about their municipality’s actual position in terms of hospital accessibility relative to all other municipalities within their federal state, based on a novel dataset covering all German municipalities. The study addresses three questions. First, do respondents hold systematic misperceptions about their municipality's relative position in terms of hospital accessibility? Second, how do respondents update their beliefs when informed about their municipality's actual position? Third, do these information shocks affect downstream outcomes, including support for territorial redistribution and public service spending under fiscal trade-offs, perceptions of public service deprivation, political trust, voting intentions, and a hypothetical donation decision? To assess the persistence of treatment effects, I field a follow-up survey one week after the intervention.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Doliesen, Konrad. 2026. "Local Public Services, Belief Updating and Policy Preferences." AEA RCT Registry. June 29. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19062-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
This study implements an information-provision experiment on local public services in Germany. Respondents assigned to the treatment group receive information about their municipality's actual position in terms of hospital accessibility relative to all other municipalities within their federal state. The information is based on a novel dataset covering all German municipalities and generates positive or negative information shocks depending on respondents' prior beliefs. The intervention is designed to exogenously shift perceptions of local public service provision and to evaluate the effects of such information shocks on policy preferences, perceptions of public service deprivation, political outcomes, and behavioral intentions.
Intervention Start Date
2026-07-03
Intervention End Date
2026-08-14

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
1. Policy preferences: support for territorial redistribution and public service spending under fiscal trade-offs

2. Perceptions of public service deprivation

3. Political attitudes and behavior: political trust, political responsiveness and vote intentions

4. Behavioral intention: willingness to donate to a non-profit, non partisan initiative aimed at preserving access to local hospital care
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Several outcome families consist of multiple survey items. Policy preferences, perceptions of public service deprivation, and political trust will be analyzed both at the individual-item level and as standardized indices constructed from the corresponding survey measures. Detailed variable definitions and a list of outcome families are provided in the pre-analysis plan. The remaining outcomes, including vote intentions and donation intentions, will be analyzed separately.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Belief updating
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Measured as the difference between prior and posterior beliefs about the municipality’s relative position in terms of hospital accessibility within its federal state.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The experiment relies on two survey waves. In the first wave, I elicit respondents' prior beliefs about their municipality’s position in terms of hospital accessibility relative to all other municipalities within their federal state. Respondents are then randomly assigned to either a treatment group or a control group. Treated respondents receive information about their municipality’s actual position based on a novel dataset covering all German municipalities, while control respondents receive no information. Outcomes are measured immediately after treatment administration. The second wave is conducted one week later. After asking some unrelated questions, I elicit posterior beliefs using the same elicitation procedure as for the prior beliefs. A subset of the outcome variables is then measured again to assess the persistence of treatment effects.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is done by the computer.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
0
Sample size: planned number of observations
Wave 1: 4,000 – 4,750 survey respondents (depending on the final take-up rate) Wave 2: Approx. 2,000 survey respondents
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

Wave 1: Approx. 2,250 treated respondents and 2,250 control respondents

Wave 2: The number of treated and control respondents will depend on follow-up participation rates in both groups
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
See pre-analysis plan, section 3
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Hertie School
IRB Approval Date
2026-06-25
IRB Approval Number
20260623-232
Analysis Plan

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