From Verdict to Voter: Evidence on the Impact of a High-profile Judicial Ruling

Last registered on July 06, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
From Verdict to Voter: Evidence on the Impact of a High-profile Judicial Ruling
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019065
Initial registration date
June 30, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 06, 2026, 9:20 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Juliette de Wit
Affiliation
University of Groningen
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Maite Laméris
PI Affiliation
University of Groningen
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PI Name
Pierre-Guillaume Méon
PI Affiliation
Université libre de Bruxelles
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-07-06
End date
2028-01-01
Keywords
Behavior, Electoral, Governance
Additional Keywords
political behaviour, institutional trust, populism, judicial ruling, survey experiment, RDD
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study examines how a high-profile judicial ruling concerning a prominent politician affects political behaviour, institutional trust, and democratic attitudes. We combine a regression discontinuity design exploiting the timing of survey responses around the announcement of the verdict with a randomized survey experiment providing information about the independence of the judicial system. Data are collected from a representative sample of individuals.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
de Wit, Juliette, Maite Laméris and Pierre-Guillaume Méon. 2026. "From Verdict to Voter: Evidence on the Impact of a High-profile Judicial Ruling." AEA RCT Registry. July 06. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19065-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2026-07-06
Intervention End Date
2026-07-08

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Institutional trust; electoral preferences
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Democratic attitudes and norms; procedural fairness; political efficacy
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study combines a natural experiment with a randomized survey experiment. The natural experiment relies on the timing of a high-profile judicial ruling in France. Survey data are collected before, during and after the appeal ruling. We exploit the timing of survey responses relative to the ruling as the basis for a regression discontinuity design estimating the effect of exposure to the verdict on political behaviour, institutional trust and democratic attitudes. As the sequence of interviews is as good as random with respect to the announcement of the verdict, observed differences between respondents interviewed before and after the announcement of the verdict can be interpreted as causal.

The survey experiment aims to investigate whether information about the independence of the judicial system influences these outcomes. There are three treatment conditions. The control group receives no information. Respondents in treatment 1 receive information about the constitutional safeguards of judicial independence. Respondents in treatment 2 receive information about France's performance on international indicators of judicial quality.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
The randomization is done by a computer.
Randomization Unit
Randomized batches of respondents are invited to the survey to ensure balance for the RDD. Randomization in the survey experiment is done at the level of the individual.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Target is 5,000 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
Target is 5,000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Target is 1,666 individuals per treatment group
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Based on a power analysis conducted with Optimal Design, with alpha set at 5% and power at 80%, and assuming a standardized effect size of 0.15, we require approximately 700 respondents per experimental condition. Given that our design includes an RDD with a pre-post verdict effect and a survey experiment with 3 conditions, we oversample and target a sample of approximately 1,666 respondents per experimental condition. This corresponds to about 833 respondents per timing-per-treatment cell assuming balanced fielding before and after the verdict. This totals to 5,000 respondents.
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
The Institutional Review Board of the Faculty of Economics and Business at the University of Groningen
IRB Approval Date
2026-06-10
IRB Approval Number
# FEB-20260603-01755
Analysis Plan

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