Longer-Term Effects of Early Child Care Access on Maternal Labor-Market and Family Outcomes

Last registered on July 13, 2026

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Longer-Term Effects of Early Child Care Access on Maternal Labor-Market and Family Outcomes
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019070
Initial registration date
June 30, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 13, 2026, 7:20 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
ifo Institute and University of Munich

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University of Augsburg
PI Affiliation
Technical University of Munich
PI Affiliation
Halle Institute for Economic Research and Halle University

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-07-01
End date
2028-10-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
This project studies the longer-term effects of a previously implemented randomized in-tervention that reduced barriers in the application process for early child care in Germany. The original intervention generated exogenous variation in access to early child care by providing families with information and personalized support during the application pro-cess.

In earlier work, we documented that the intervention increased child care applications and child care enrollment, especially among families with lower socioeconomic status. We also found positive short-run effects on maternal labor supply and intra-household gender equality. The present follow-up study examines whether these effects persist as children grow older and enter primary school.

Our primary focus is on mothers’ longer-term labor-market outcomes. We use two com-plementary data sources: administrative employment records from the Institute for Em-ployment Research (IAB) of the Federal Employment Agency, linked to our study sample for mothers who previously consented to this linkage, and newly collected data from a follow-up survey fielded in summer 2026. As secondary outcomes, we examine maternal well-being, paternal labor market outcomes, and child development.

Registration Citation

Citation
Hermes, Henning et al. 2026. "Longer-Term Effects of Early Child Care Access on Maternal Labor-Market and Family Outcomes." AEA RCT Registry. July 13. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19070-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
In this project, we estimate the causal effect of a randomized controlled trial that increased access to early child care on longer-term maternal labor-market and family outcomes. The original intervention was designed to reduce barriers in the application process for early child care. Treated families received information about the child care application process and, where desired, personalized support with the application. The intervention was intended to reduce informational and administrative barriers that may prevent families from applying for and obtaining an early child care slot.

Hermes et al. (2025) describe the original intervention in detail and show that it increased application behavior and the probability of receiving an early child care slot, in particular among mothers with lower socioeconomic status (SES). Based on self-collected survey data, Hermes et al. (2024) further show that the intervention increased full-time employment among lower-SES mothers and improved intra-household gender equality between mothers and fathers.

The original baseline sample consisted of 607 families. In a previous follow-up, Hermes et al. (2024) re-surveyed 481 of these families. In the current project, we re-contact the original sample of 607 families and expect approximately 450 families to participate in the new follow-up survey. As in previous survey waves, we aim to interview the mothers in this follow-up survey.

No new intervention is administered in this trial. The current project collects longer-term outcomes through a new follow-up survey and administrative labor-market records. Consent for linking survey data to IAB administrative employment records was collected in a previous survey wave using a separate consent procedure developed in consultation with the IAB. Only mothers who provided consent will be included in the administrative data linkage.


Data sources and outcome measurement

Our main maternal labor market outcomes are measured using two data sources.

First, we use administrative employment records from the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) of the Federal Employment Agency for mothers who consented to the data linkage (note that consenting to the data linkage is not affected by treatment status). These data allow us to trace labor-market outcomes over time and to measure longer-term employment and earnings outcomes in administrative records.

Second, we collect new data in a follow-up survey administered in two parts (because of the survey length, the survey has two parts for which participants receive separate invitations) in summer 2026, when the children in the original study are approximately eight years old and mostly attend primary school.

Combining both data types not only maximizes the analysis sample but also allows us to estimate effects over time. While Hermes et al. (2024) examine labor-market outcomes for mothers when their children are 2–3 years old (about eighteen months after the intervention), the administrative data enable us to trace dynamic effects from immediately after the treatment through at least 2024. The survey data will capture mothers' prior and current employment outcomes, allowing us to complement the administrative records and measure longer-run effects when children are around eight years old. Wherever possible, we will pool the administrative and survey data to estimate treatment effects on the largest feasible sample. However, for certain years or outcomes, estimation will necessarily be restricted to one source only, either because the relevant data are unavailable in a given year or because a particular variable is captured in only one of the two datasets.

Note that in most cases, the mother participated in the prior surveys and potentially gave consent to the data linkage. Thus, information about the partner/father and child outcomes mainly comes from survey data reported by the mother.




References

Hermes, H., P. Lergetporer, F. Peter, and S. Wiederhold (2025). Application Barriers and the
Socioeconomic Gap in Child Care Enrollment. Journal of the European Economic Association 23 (3),
1133–1172.

Hermes, H., M. Krauß, P. Lergetporer, F. Peter, and S. Wiederhold (2024). Early Child Care, Maternal
Labor Supply, and Gender Equality: A Randomized Controlled Trial. CESifo Working Paper No. 10178,
Center for Economic Studies.
Intervention Start Date
2026-07-01
Intervention End Date
2026-10-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Our analysis focuses on the long-term effects of the original treatment on longer-term maternal labor-market attachment. We focus on lower-SES mothers, defined as mothers without Abitur or Fachabitur at baseline.

- mothers’ longer-term labor market outcomes, such as full-time employment and earnings
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary outcomes are grouped into the following pre-specified outcome families:
- mothers’ well-being, such as quality of employment and life satisfaction
- fathers’ outcomes, such as extent of labor supply and earnings
- children’s development, such as SDQ and school outcomes
- family environment, such as division of paid/unpaid work and activities with the child
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
In this project, we estimate the causal effect of a randomized controlled trial that increased access to early child care on longer-term maternal labor-market and family outcomes. See https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/3181 for the underlying RCT.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
- Stratified randomization
- Randomization done with computer in office
Randomization Unit
Individual randomization (parent-child pair level)
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
no clustering
Sample size: planned number of observations
In the current project, we re-contact the original sample of 607 families and expect approximately 450 families to participate in the new follow-up survey.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
50:50
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Ethics Commission, Department of Economics, University of Munich
IRB Approval Date
2026-03-30
IRB Approval Number
2026-07
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

RCT Registration and PAP

MD5: d255e20b23db3fec6117432c34e9e88d

SHA1: 7211bb6578fe0bc89243d5ed43efb0e040373c6f

Uploaded At: June 30, 2026