Cross-Sibling Linkages in the Marriage Market

Last registered on July 13, 2026

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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

Cross-Sibling Linkages in the Marriage Market

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0019119

Initial registration date

July 12, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

July 13, 2026, 8:34 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country

Region

Country

Region

Primary Investigator

Name

Arigna Guha

Affiliation

Binghamton University

Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status

In development

Start date

2026-07-16

End date

2026-08-05

Keywords

Behavior, Gender, Welfare

Additional Keywords

Marriage Markets

JEL code(s)

D13, J12, J13

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

Marriage is among the largest financial decisions an Indian family makes. Dowry transfers at a daughter's wedding can consume more than a year of household income, and the quality of her match shapes her economic security, autonomy, and well-being for decades. How wisely families allocate financial resources across daughters therefore matters enormously. Parents typically arrange their children's marriages in birth order. If a good elder match functions as a positive signal to the marriage market, improving how prospective grooms' families view the household, then parents can capitalise on this spillover by strategically allocating more resources to the elder daughter's match. If no such spillover exists, or if parents misjudge it, the same allocation deprives the younger sister of resources to find a suitable match. This study asks whether parents believe that an elder daughter's marriage changes the younger sister's prospects in the marriage market, whether families on the groom's side actually update their assessments in the way parents of daughters expect, and whether parents act on these beliefs when dividing marriage budgets between daughters. We conduct a vignette-based survey experiment with approximately 520 parents of marriageable-age children in two districts of Uttar Pradesh, India. Respondents advise hypothetical families on marriage proposals and budget allocations under experimentally varied family circumstances. The design separates what parents believe about cross-sibling spillovers from their willingness to act on those beliefs, and measures both sides of the same market - the beliefs held by families of brides and the beliefs held by families of grooms.The findings will show how families allocate marriage resources among daughters, whether beliefs on the bride's side match behaviour on the groom's side or a wedge separates the two, and what any such wedge implies for the efficiency of matching in the marriage market and for the design of transfer programmes tied to marriage.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Guha, Arigna. 2026. "Cross-Sibling Linkages in the Marriage Market." AEA RCT Registry. July 13. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19119-1.0

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

There is no field intervention in the conventional sense: this is a survey experiment in which the experimental variation is embedded in hypothetical vignettes administered within the interview. Each respondent evaluates a series of marriage-market scenarios in which we experimentally vary the circumstances of a hypothetical family, including the quality of a proposed match, the composition of the family's children, and the spacing between daughters. Respondents state beliefs about marriage-market outcomes and make advisory choices for these hypothetical families. Scenario content and presentation order are randomised across and within respondents. All scenarios concern fictional families.

Intervention Start Date

2026-07-16

Intervention End Date

2026-08-05

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

Bride-side module: (i) acceptance of the elder daughter's proposal; (ii) the believed distribution of the younger daughter's match opportunities across groom types; (iii) the perceived reputation effect of the elder's match; (iv) the believed gift value required for the younger daughter to marry a fixed high-quality groom.

Groom-side module: (v) acceptance likelihood (0-10); (vi) the reservation gift value at which the respondent would advise accepting the match; (vii) the updated assessment of the proposing family.

Allocation module: (viii) the binary choice between the unequal and equal budget split.

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

We are interested in three constructed objects. First, a respondent-level spillover belief index, constructed using within-respondent contrasts in the bride-side module. The change in the believed high-type share (outcome ii) and in the required gift for the younger daughter (outcome iv) as the elder daughter's proposed match varies across scenarios, holding all else fixed by construction. Second, a market-updating measure on the groom side. The within-respondent change in the reservation gift (outcome vi) between the baseline phase and each revealed elder-match state, interpretable as a revealed willingness to pay for family reputation; the belief-versus-market wedge is the difference between the bride-side dowry contrast and this groom-side contrast. Third, a belief-action pass-through coefficient. In the allocation module, the interaction between the respondent's spillover belief index and cell characteristics that reward tilting the budget toward the elder daughter; the shortfall of this interaction from full pass-through, in cells where tilting is stipulated to be advantageous, measures the extent to which fairness preferences over unequal giving block belief-consistent allocation.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

The study is a within-subject vignette experiment conducted using a face-to-face survey of parents in two districts of Uttar Pradesh, sampled from 26 localities. Eligible respondents are assigned to one of two belief modules according to the composition of their own children, and all respondents complete a common budget-allocation module. Scenario attributes vary within respondent according to a full factorial design; scenario order is balanced across respondents using Williams Latin square designs, so that each scenario appears in each position, and follows every other scenario, with equal frequency. All experimental assignments are pre-generated by seeded computer routines, linked to anonymised respondent identifiers, and delivered automatically by the electronic survey instrument; neither enumerators nor respondents influence any assignment.

Experimental Design Details

Not available

Randomization Method

Randomisation done using computer program seeded scripts generate all assignments (blocks, orders, allocation configurations) attached to pre-printed respondent identifiers; Williams Latin square designs govern within-respondent scenario order.

Randomization Unit

All experimental assignments are at the individual respondent level. Between-respondent factors (wealth-split block; groom-side son type; allocation split; allocation cell configuration) and within-respondent presentation orders (Williams Latin square rows; Phase-1 counterbalance) are assigned to anonymised respondent identifiers in pre-generated lists, stratified and balanced within primary sampling unit (locality). Sampling, as distinct from experimental assignment, is clustered: localities are selected by systematic PPS within district, and respondents are recruited within locality subject to screening; no treatment is assigned at the cluster level.

Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

We survey in 2 districts in Uttar Pradesh (Lucknow and Prayagraj). We intend to sample from 9 urban wards and 4 villages in Lucknow district, and from 3 urban wards and 10 villages in Prayagraj district - to maintain district representativeness. We survey 20 respondents - who meet screening criteria -from each ward.

Sample size: planned number of observations

Each Bride-Side respondent provides : 32 responses from the Belief Module and 6 responses from the Allocation Choice Module. Thus a total of 38 responses. Each Groom-Side respondent provides : 22 responses from the Belief Module and 6 responses from the Allocation Choice Module. Thus a total of 28 responses.

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

Approximately 500 total respondents: 250 Bride-Side respondents and 250 Groom-side respondents.

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Supporting Documents and Materials

IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name

BINGHAMTON UNIVERSITY INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARD

IRB Approval Date

2026-06-16

IRB Approval Number

STUDY00007352

Analysis Plan