Abstract
Governments seeking to expand childcare access face particular challenges in small local markets. Childcare provision is labor-intensive and entails substantial fixed and operating costs, making it difficult for facilities in sparsely populated areas to attract enough users to remain viable. Uncertainty about local demand, suitable premises, staffing, and other organizational barriers may further deter entry. Consequently, some communities remain “
"childcare deserts" with no formal childcare provider. In Poland, approximately 30% of municipalities lack childcare providers despite substantial subsidies for providers and parents.
To investigate why, we will conduct an online survey of representatives of public and private childcare providers. Participants will evaluate hypothetical rural municipalities that vary in the number of young children. For each municipality, they will estimate expected childcare use, provide plausible lower and upper demand estimates, and report the minimum level of initial interest required for them to consider taking concrete steps toward opening a facility. We will examine how market size, expected demand, demand uncertainty, and additional information influence providers’ assessments of market viability.
The survey will also collect information on provider characteristics, previous expansion experience, perceived barriers to opening facilities, and experiences with public support programs. The study aims to explain why some small local markets remain without childcare services and to identify the most important constraints on provider entry.