Learning, Expert Forecasts, and Household House Price Expectations:Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial

Last registered on July 22, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Learning, Expert Forecasts, and Household House Price Expectations:Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019154
Initial registration date
July 13, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 22, 2026, 7:48 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Shuai Fang
Affiliation
Soochow University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Shiqing Chi
PI Affiliation
Soochow University
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PI Name
Mofei Jia
PI Affiliation
Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-08-01
End date
2026-12-31
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
House Price Expectations, Expert Forecasts, Extrapolation, Mean Reversion
JEL code(s)
R31, D84, D83, C93
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We conduct a randomized survey experiment in China to examine how theoretical narratives affect the incorporation of expert forecasts into household house price expectations. Respondents are randomly assigned to a control group or to one of five treatments that provide an extrapolative theory explanation, a mean-reversion theory explanation, an expert forecast alone, or a sequential combination of a theory explanation and the expert forecast. We estimate the causal effects of these information treatments on revisions to 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year house price expectations, subjective forecast certainty, and housing purchase intentions.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Chi, Shiqing, Shuai Fang and Mofei Jia. 2026. "Learning, Expert Forecasts, and Household House Price Expectations:Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial." AEA RCT Registry. July 22. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19154-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
This study implements six randomized survey groups comprising one control group and five treatment groups. All participants receive the same baseline information on historical housing market trends. The control group receives only this baseline information, while the five treatment groups receive additional information. Specifically, the first treatment group receives an explanation of extrapolative theory; the second receives an explanation of mean-reversion theory; the third receives a professional expert forecast; the fourth receives the extrapolative theory explanation followed by the expert forecast; and the fifth receives the mean-reversion theory explanation followed by the expert forecast.
Intervention Start Date
2026-08-01
Intervention End Date
2026-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Revisions to respondents’ 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year house price expectations.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Expectation revisions are calculated as post-treatment expectations minus pre-treatment expectations for each forecast horizon.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
This study utilizes an online survey experiment with an individual-level randomized design among respondents recruited from an online panel restricted to individuals aged 26 and above who reside in Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, or Shanghai Municipality, China. Only panel members who satisfy these eligibility criteria are invited to participate in the survey. The experiment follows a structured three-stage procedure. First, we elicit respondents’ prior beliefs regarding historical housing market trends and baseline house price expectations. Second, participants are randomly allocated to either a control group or one of five treatment groups that vary the presentation of theoretical economic frameworks and expert analyst forecasts. Third, we immediately measure post-treatment house price expectations for one, two, and three years ahead, subjective prediction confidence, and housing purchase intentions.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is automatically executed by the built-in computer algorithm of the online survey platform.
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
no clusters
Sample size: planned number of observations
1500 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
250 respondents for the control group and 250 respondents for each of the five treatment groups
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University Research Ethics Review Panel
IRB Approval Date
2026-07-12
IRB Approval Number
ER-LRR-15882492620260709171029
Analysis Plan