| Field | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Field Trial Start Date | Before September 22, 2026 | After September 28, 2026 |
| Field Trial End Date | Before October 22, 2026 | After October 28, 2026 |
| Field Last Published | Before September 21, 2026 09:14 AM | After September 27, 2026 02:55 PM |
| Field Intervention Start Date | Before September 22, 2026 | After September 28, 2026 |
| Field Intervention End Date | Before October 22, 2026 | After October 28, 2026 |
| Field Primary Outcomes (Explanation) | Before For a candidate reference point, reference dependence means that the probability of selling depends on the current value and the candidate only through their difference. Equivalent Offsets follows: raising both by the same amount leaves the probability unchanged. S is the average change in the probability of selling when the current value and the candidate rise together by one point. Q rescales S so that Q equals 1 under Equivalent Offsets and Q equals 0 when the candidate has no effect on the choice. For each candidate the hypothesis tested is S = 0, equivalently Q = 1. A candidate passes when the hypothesis is not rejected. Predictions. H1: in the Framed arm, where the benchmark is displayed, the benchmark passes. H2: in the Plain arm, where the benchmark exists in the design but never appears on screen, the benchmark fails. Which candidates built from the stock’s earlier values pass in the Plain arm is an open question. The pre-analysis plan defines twenty-three candidates per arm in four groups: twelve single reference points, six functional rules, one six-referent mixture and four lagged distributions. It also specifies reduced-form evidence on path dependence, a linear probability model with participant-clustered inference and a joint test of the five lagged shocks, and a held-out predictive comparison of the eighteen single and functional-rule candidates. | After For a candidate reference point, reference dependence means that the probability of selling depends on the current value and the candidate only through their difference. Equivalent Offsets follows: raising both by the same amount leaves the probability unchanged. S is the weighted average change in the probability of selling when the current value and the candidate rise together by one point, with weights fixed in advance from the experimental design. Q rescales S so that Q equals 1 under Equivalent Offsets and Q equals 0 when the candidate has no effect on the choice. For each candidate the hypothesis tested is S = 0, equivalently Q = 1. For the single reference points and functional rules, the same hypothesis is also tested jointly across the three levels, 80, 100 and 120, around which the situations’ benchmarks are drawn. Both tests are computed for every candidate. Predictions. H1: the hypothesis S = 0 is not rejected for the benchmark in the Framed arm, where the benchmark is displayed. H2: the hypothesis S = 0 is rejected for the benchmark in the Plain arm, where the benchmark exists in the design but never appears on screen. It is an open question which candidates built from the stock’s earlier values satisfy the hypothesis in the Plain arm. The pre-analysis plan defines twenty-three candidates per arm in four groups: twelve single reference points, six functional rules, one six-referent mixture and four lagged distributions. It also specifies reduced-form evidence on path dependence, a linear probability model with participant-clustered inference and a joint test of the five lagged shocks, and a held-out predictive comparison of the eighteen single and functional-rule candidates. |
| Field | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Field Document | Before |
After
PREANALYSIS_PLAN_FINAL.pdf
MD5:
993a20d7b134e0427a99c96660eeee48
SHA1:
41ac448a6329935a2e062f8d112ecb991c208f5f
|
| Field Title | Before | After Pre-analysis plan |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Field Document |
Value
PREANALYSIS_PLAN_FINAL.pdf
MD5:
1e7876a09466def869bf552e0199bfa7
SHA1:
2a56715feff7a2a950d5df6c0a73585ede40c753
|
| Field Title | Value Pre-analysis plan |