Role of (Mis)Information in Sectarian Conflict: A Social Media Experiment

Last registered on September 21, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Role of (Mis)Information in Sectarian Conflict: A Social Media Experiment
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019223
Initial registration date
September 12, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 21, 2026, 9:07 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Pakistan
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Saqib Hussain
Affiliation
KDI School of Public Policy and Management
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
David Sungho Park
PI Affiliation
KDI School of Public Policy and Management
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Rida Ali Khan
PI Affiliation
Centre d'études et de recherches sur le développement international (CERDI)
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-08-01
End date
2026-12-31
Keywords
Behavior, Crime, Violence, & Conflict
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Sectarian conflict between Sunni and Shia communities in Pakistan has eroded social trust and caused thousands of deaths. This study tests whether low-cost, scalable digital interventions can counter sectarian mistrust and improve social cohesion. We conduct a randomized controlled trial in which short documentary-style video messages, varying in the messenger's identity, gender, and message framing, are delivered via Facebook/Meta advertising and randomly assigned to participants through an online survey. The experiment measures short- and medium-term changes in tolerance, trust, beliefs, and cross-sect economic behaviour, both immediately after the video and in two follow-up waves. By generating evidence on how messenger credibility and message framing shape intergroup beliefs and cooperation, the study contributes to the literature on economic cooperation and peacebuilding through social media. The findings can inform governments and civil-society organizations seeking to scale online campaigns that reduce hate speech, build intergroup trust, and promote economic inclusion. The design is cost-effective, scalable, and replicable in other settings divided along sectarian, ethnic, or religious lines.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Hussain, Saqib, Rida Ali Khan and David Sungho Park. 2026. "Role of (Mis)Information in Sectarian Conflict: A Social Media Experiment." AEA RCT Registry. September 21. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19223-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

Sponsors

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Sectarian division between Sunni and Shia Muslims is a persistent social divide in Pakistan that shapes everyday economic life -- whom people trust as traders, whom they hire, from whom they buy, and which religious authorities they learn from. These frictions fragment markets and entrench mistrust, yet are rarely the target of rigorous intervention. This project tests how the messenger of a message and its framing shape cross-sect mistrust and willingness to engage in cross-sect economic activity. It is a social-media field experiment in Pakistan: a 30-arm (2 × 5 × 3) factorial varying messenger gender (male/female), messenger identity (Sunni scholar, Shia scholar, non-sect scholar, professor, ordinary citizen), and message framing (religious references, scientific–historical references, or a placebo on honest dealing). Thirty documentary-style videos are delivered via Meta/Facebook ads linked to a Qualtrics survey that randomly assigns one video per participant. Each participant receives a small incentive ~£1.
Intervention Start Date
2026-09-01
Intervention End Date
2026-10-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Cross-sect economic behaviour
Cross-sect economic discrimination
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Tolerance and social acceptance of the other sect
Beliefs and perceived social norms about cross-sect cooperation
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
A 30-arm (2 × 5 × 3) factorial online social media experiment. Adults in Pakistan are recruited through Meta/Facebook advertising and directed to a Qualtrics survey. After consent and a baseline module, the survey randomly assigns each participant to one of 30 documentary-style videos, crossing messenger gender x messenger identity x message framing. Outcomes are measured immediately post-video and in 2-week and 4-week phone/online follow-ups. Primary outcomes are cross-sect economic behaviours; secondary outcomes cover tolerance, beliefs/norms, and empathy.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is performed by computer within the Qualtrics survey instrument (built-in randomizer), assigning each participant to one arm.
Randomization Unit
Individual participant.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
3000 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
3000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
100 participants per arm x 30 arms = 3000
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
KDI School IRB
IRB Approval Date
2026-09-03
IRB Approval Number
2026-33
Analysis Plan

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