Experiment E from "Neglect at Your Own Risk: Evidence on Risk-Taking Prevalence and Motives from the Field"

Last registered on July 27, 2026

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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

Experiment E from "Neglect at Your Own Risk: Evidence on Risk-Taking Prevalence and Motives from the Field"

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0019247

Initial registration date

July 26, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

July 27, 2026, 7:16 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated

July 27, 2026, 8:17 PM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country

United States of America

Region

Primary Investigator

Name

Saurabh Bhargava

Affiliation

Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name

Timothy Hyde

PI Affiliation

Oberlin College

Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status

In development

Start date

2026-07-26

End date

2026-08-31

Keywords

Behavior

Additional Keywords

Insurance choice; risky choice; probability representation; contingency neglect; conditional probability; incentives.

JEL code(s)

D81

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

Experiment E is part of a broader study of contingency neglect: the possibility that people make different risky choices when equivalent probabilities are represented as unconditional outcomes or nested conditional events. The broader study examines this mechanism in employee goal-reward choices and prescription-drug insurance; Experiment E extends it to low-probability homeowners insurance, where it may contribute to overinsurance. Participants choose among three insurance plans under one of three equivalent probability displays. We examine whether the displays change overinsurance choosing the Medium or Premium Plan rather than the Basic Plan and how post-choice probability estimates relate to choice.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Bhargava, Saurabh and Timothy Hyde. 2026. "Experiment E from "Neglect at Your Own Risk: Evidence on Risk-Taking Prevalence and Motives from the Field"." AEA RCT Registry. July 27. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19247-2.0

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

All participants complete the same insurance education, comprehension item, incentive explanation, plan menu, post-choice probability questions, liquidity question, and incentivized random-outcome procedure. The three conditions vary only in how the same objective damage distribution is described immediately before plan choice.

1. Separate damage-outcome probabilities condition: 96% chance of no damage, 1% chance of minor damage costing $750, and 3% chance of severe damage costing $2,500.

2. Any-damage and conditional-severity condition: 4% chance of any damage of at least $750 and, conditional on any damage, a 75% chance that damage is severe and costs $2,500.

3. Any-damage and severe-damage probabilities condition: 4% chance of any damage of at least $750 and 3% chance of severe damage costing $2,500.

Participants choose among a Basic Plan ($616 premium, $2,000 deductible), Medium Plan ($806 premium, $400 deductible), and Premium Plan ($926 premium, $250 deductible). Their plan choice and a randomly selected damage outcome determine a bonus between $0.00 and $1.54. The regular participation payment is $1.00.

Intervention (Hidden)

Intervention Start Date

2026-07-26

Intervention End Date

2026-08-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

An overinsurance indicator equal to 1 when the participant chooses the Medium or Premium Plan and 0 when the participant chooses the Basic Plan. The central comparison is the any-damage and conditional-severity condition versus the separate damage-outcome probabilities condition. The directional prediction is that the conditional-severity representation increases overinsurance.

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

This is an individually randomized online survey experiment. Participants see one condition and make one incentivized insurance-plan choice. The separate damage-outcome probabilities and any-damage plus conditional-severity conditions provide mathematically equivalent information about the same damage distribution. The any-damage plus severe-damage probabilities condition is a secondary diagnostic arm.

Experimental Design Details

Randomization Method

Qualtrics will assign participants using an eight-cell evenly presented randomizer. Three cells assign the terminal-state condition, three assign the nested-conditional condition, and two assign the marginal-probability condition. The randomizer presents one cell to each participant, producing an intended allocation ratio of 3:3:2.

Randomization Unit

Individual

Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

600 individuals

Sample size: planned number of observations

600 individuals

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

The target analytic sample is 600 eligible completed participants after the preregistered exclusions: approximately 200 in the separate damage-outcome probabilities condition, 200 in the any-damage and conditional-severity condition, and 150 in the any-damage and severe-damage probabilities condition. Recruitment may continue until the target analytic sample is reached, subject to budget and platform availability.

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Supporting Documents and Materials

IRB