Rebel Territorial Control and National Identity: Evidence from Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

Last registered on September 21, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Rebel Territorial Control and National Identity: Evidence from Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019345
Initial registration date
September 05, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 21, 2026, 7:17 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Gentil ISHARA MUSIMWA
Affiliation
Boston University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Karan MISHRA
PI Affiliation
Paris School of Economics (PSE)
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-09-03
End date
2027-03-31
Keywords
Crime, Violence, & Conflict, Governance
Additional Keywords
National Identity, Rebel Governance, State Legitimacy, Conflict, Formative Exposure, Democratic Republic of Congo
JEL code(s)
D74, D91, O12, P48, Z13
Secondary IDs
ReCIPE_LOA_303010_Mishra
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Across many conflict affected regions, many civilians live under contested sovereignty, where core state functions are performed by different non-state armed actors competing against each other. This raises important questions with consequences for stability and statehood. When civilians live under sustained rebel governance, does their sense of national identity and their trust in state institutions change, and if so, for whom, and through which channels? To answer these, the project fields an original survey of approximately 2,200 civilians in M23-controlled areas of eastern DRC. The survey measures three families of outcomes: attachment to Congolese national versus local and ethnic identity; trust in and the perceived legitimacy of state institutions; and attitudes toward the fiscal-social contract, including willingness to pay taxes and demand for public goods. Survey responses are paired with implicit and indirect measurement techniques to address the risk of biased answers under conflict conditions.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
ISHARA MUSIMWA, Gentil and Karan MISHRA. 2026. "Rebel Territorial Control and National Identity: Evidence from Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)." AEA RCT Registry. September 21. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19345-1.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2026-09-11
Intervention End Date
2026-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Agreement with policy statements, by endorser National versus ethnic and local identity
Trust in and legitimacy of state institutions
Fiscal contract attitudes: tax fairness, compliance norms, demand for public goods
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Effects by policy domain in the endorsement experiment
Endorsement effect interacted with formative exposure
Heterogeneity by ethnicity, in particular Rwandophone status
Heterogeneity by gender, age bin, and displacement history
Divergence between implicit and explicit measures by treatment status
Dose-response across villages by length of M23 control
Placebo results in never-M23 villages/Kinshasa
Item non-response and enumerator-observed discomfort
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Respondents are randomized, within person, into the endorser attached to each policy statement they hear. Each respondent rates three statements, one each on dispute resolution, taxation and epidemic response, and the endorser is drawn separately for each.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is done in the office by computer, embedded in the SurveyCTO instrument. Seeds are logged and assignment is recorded in the audit trail. Enumerators cannot select or change the endorser.
Randomization Unit
Individual respondent, at the statement level. Blocking is at the age-bin-by-village level.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
40-60 villages across 5 territories in North and South Kivu.
Sample size: planned number of observations
2,200 respondents, each rating 3 policy statements, for approximately 6,600 statement-level observations. We may not reach 2,200; the number depends on access and on expansion funding.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Randomization is within person, so respondents are not assigned to a single arm. Of the statement-level observations, allocation is weighted toward the governing-authority endorser and the no-endorser control, with the state endorser somewhat lighter.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Boston University
IRB Approval Date
2026-07-29
IRB Approval Number
8473X
IRB Name
Paris School of Economics (PSE)
IRB Approval Date
2026-07-14
IRB Approval Number
2026-049
Analysis Plan