Skepticism, Policy Take-up, and Diffusion

Last registered on August 10, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Skepticism, Policy Take-up, and Diffusion
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019348
Initial registration date
August 10, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 10, 2026, 5:16 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

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Primary Investigator

Name
Dev Patel
Affiliation
Harvard University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Emily Breza
PI Affiliation
Harvard
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PI Name
Arun Chandrasekhar
PI Affiliation
Stanford
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2026-08-06
End date
2026-12-31
Keywords
Agriculture, Behavior, Environment & Energy
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study the role of skepticism in shaping the adoption of government programs and its diffusion to others, focusing on the context of crop insurance in India.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Breza, Emily, Arun Chandrasekhar and Dev Patel. 2026. "Skepticism, Policy Take-up, and Diffusion." AEA RCT Registry. August 10. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19348-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We randomize whether we give people information about the government's crop insurance scheme that captures (a) the standard government pitch, or (b) additionally reflects information on successful claims rates based on surveys we previously conducted in the area. (a) implicitly assumes very high successful claims rates, while (b) shows that only about 30 percent of claims were successfully paid out.
Intervention Start Date
2026-08-06
Intervention End Date
2026-08-15

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Our main outcomes are the respondents' own interest in PMFBY and their desire to diffuse information about PMFBY to others. We will examine heterogeneity by the respondents' prior about the effectiveness of government programs and their baseline familiarity with PMFBY.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Information about past successful claims rates will be randomized at the individual level.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization will be done via computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
We expect around 150 respondents, the exact number will depend on refusal rates within each village. Given the time constraints of program enrollment, we aren't able to expand the sample size at this time, so we expect this to be a pilot round and plan on doing another round in the future.
Sample size: planned number of observations
We expect around 150 respondents, the exact number will depend on refusal rates within each village
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
We expect 50% of the sample in each arm
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Harvard University
IRB Approval Date
2025-10-17
IRB Approval Number
IRB24-0512
Analysis Plan