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Field
Abstract
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Before
Atlanta Mission is one of the largest providers of homeless shelter services in Atlanta, seeking to build a community united to end homelessness, poverty, and addiction one person at a time. LEO and Atlanta Mission are partnering to conduct an RCT to measure the impact of Atlanta Mission’s programs on key outcomes such as participants’ housing stability and economic stability. Specifically, this RCT will focus on evaluating two of Atlanta Mission’s programs, Make Progress and Fast Track as described below. We anticipate our primary comparison to be individuals who are offered Make Progress and those referred out (Control group) due to excess demand, though numbers permitting we hope to make a secondary MP vs. FT comparison, and tertiary FT vs. Control comparison.
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After
Atlanta Mission is one of the largest providers of homeless shelter services in Atlanta, seeking to build a community united to end homelessness, poverty, and addiction one person at a time. LEO and Atlanta Mission are partnering to conduct an RCT to measure the impact of Atlanta Mission’s programs on key outcomes such as participants’ housing stability and economic stability. Specifically, this RCT will focus on evaluating two of Atlanta Mission’s programs, Make Progress and Workforce Launch as described below. We anticipate our primary comparison to be individuals who are offered Make Progress and those referred out (Control group) due to excess demand, though numbers permitting we hope to make a secondary MP vs. WL comparison, and tertiary WL vs. Control comparison.
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Field
Trial Start Date
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Before
September 14, 2026
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After
September 21, 2026
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Field
Trial End Date
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Before
September 14, 2029
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After
September 21, 2029
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Field
Last Published
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Before
September 21, 2026 06:49 AM
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After
September 21, 2026 11:02 AM
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Field
Intervention (Public)
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Before
Atlanta Mission's Transformation Model is a four-phase residential program for individuals experiencing homelessness. Find Hope and Choose Help (Stage 1 programs) are 1–30 day stabilization and assessment phases in which clients can complete a needs assessment, attend six classes, and meet with a case manager. Clients who complete these requirements are placed on an approval list for Make Progress (Stage 2 program), the core intensive intervention. Each week, a given number of clients will become eligible for Make Progress and a random lottery will occur to determine to which of the three arms of the study an individual will be assigned.
Make Progress (MP):
Personalized services over ~6 months in five key areas: physical, emotional, spiritual, social, & vocational. Each client follows a personalized service program based on their needs assessment. Through these services, the goal is for clients to become rooted in community, retain employment, and become housing eligible. Successful clients can then enter Sustain and Grow afterwards, Atlanta Mission’s transitional housing program focused on job retention and long-term stability for those who still have housing needs.
Fast Track (FT):
A new bed-only program requiring participants to find employment independently within 30 days. If employment is secured, they will then enter Sustain and Grow having skipped the personalized services in Make Progress. Atlanta Mission views this as a method to serve more individuals at a lower cost with some of their extra bed capacity in the transitional housing wing.
Control Group:
Individuals offered no specific program slot due to capacity limitations in both Make Progress and Fast Track. They are provided with a list of resources available to them in the area. Individuals assigned to this arm will retain their bed at Atlanta Mission for 30 days, receiving minimal staff support to help them land on their feet.
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After
Atlanta Mission's Transformation Model is a four-phase residential program for individuals experiencing homelessness. Find Hope and Choose Help (Stage 1 programs) are 1–30 day stabilization and assessment phases in which clients can complete a needs assessment, attend six classes, and meet with a case manager. Clients who complete these requirements are placed on an approval list for Make Progress (Stage 2 program), the core intensive intervention. Each week, a given number of clients will become eligible for Make Progress and a random lottery will occur to determine to which of the three arms of the study an individual will be assigned.
Make Progress (MP):
Personalized services over ~6 months in five key areas: physical, emotional, spiritual, social, & vocational. Each client follows a personalized service program based on their needs assessment. Through these services, the goal is for clients to become rooted in community, retain employment, and become housing eligible. Successful clients can then enter Sustain and Grow afterwards, Atlanta Mission’s transitional housing program focused on job retention and long-term stability for those who still have housing needs.
Workforce Launch (WL):
A new bed-only program requiring participants to find employment independently within 30 days. If employment is secured, they will then enter Sustain and Grow having skipped the personalized services in Make Progress. Atlanta Mission views this as a method to serve more individuals at a lower cost with some of their extra bed capacity in the transitional housing wing.
Control Group:
Individuals offered no specific program slot due to capacity limitations in both Make Progress and Workforce Launch. They are provided with a list of resources available to them in the area. Individuals assigned to this arm will retain their bed at Atlanta Mission for 30 days, receiving minimal staff support to help them land on their feet.
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Field
Intervention Start Date
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Before
September 14, 2026
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After
September 21, 2026
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Field
Intervention End Date
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Before
September 14, 2029
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After
September 21, 2029
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Field
Experimental Design (Public)
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Before
This is an RCT that seeks to estimate the causal effects of Atlanta Mission’s programs on housing stability and labor market outcomes. Atlanta Mission is conducting all aspects of the study, aside from data analysis. They have no need to recruit individuals, as they have sufficient inflows. When an individual enters the door at one of their two intake sites, one for men and one for women, they will be told that space in Atlanta Mission’s long-term program, Make Progress, is limited. Atlanta Mission has designed a randomization method for determining, amongst eligible clients, who will ultimately be offered a spot in the program. Clients become eligible by reaching goals in their first 30 days with the Mission, attending some classes and meeting with Atlanta Mission staff. Each week clients approved to enter Make Progress will be included in a random lottery procedure designed by Atlanta Mission.
The procedure runs every week regardless of capacity. When MP slots suffice for all eligible clients, all are offered MP and no FT or Control assignment occurs; when MP and FT together suffice, no Control assignment occurs. Control assignment arises only in weeks of excess demand for both MP and FT simultaneously. Assignment probabilities are therefore not equal across clients: a client's realized probability of each arm depends on their draw, their stratum, their size-feasibility relative to that week's slot inventory, and the competing queue. We address this in our analysis plan.
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After
This is an RCT that seeks to estimate the causal effects of Atlanta Mission’s programs on housing stability and labor market outcomes. Atlanta Mission is conducting all aspects of the study, aside from data analysis. They have no need to recruit individuals, as they have sufficient inflows. When an individual enters the door at one of their two intake sites, one for men and one for women, they will be told that space in Atlanta Mission’s long-term program, Make Progress, is limited. Atlanta Mission has designed a randomization method for determining, amongst eligible clients, who will ultimately be offered a spot in the program. Clients become eligible by reaching goals in their first 30 days with the Mission, attending some classes and meeting with Atlanta Mission staff. Each week clients approved to enter Make Progress will be included in a random lottery procedure designed by Atlanta Mission.
The procedure runs every week regardless of capacity. When MP slots suffice for all eligible clients, all are offered MP and no WL or Control assignment occurs; when MP and WL together suffice, no Control assignment occurs. Control assignment arises only in weeks of excess demand for both MP and WL simultaneously. A client's realized probability of each arm depends on their draw, their stratum (men vs women), and the competing queue. We address this in the pre-analysis plan.
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Field
Randomization Method
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Before
Randomization will be conducted by a computer on a weekly basis, with an automated workflow occurring every Monday once that week’s approval list has been finalized. Staff members will have no control over or knowledge of the assignment prior to randomization. The probability of being assigned to one of the three arms will vary from week to week, impacted by the composition of beds available and characteristics of other clients on the list in that week. We go into further detail regarding the randomization method in the Pre-Analysis Plan.
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After
Randomization will be conducted by a computer on a weekly basis, with an automated workflow occurring every Monday once that week’s approval list has been finalized. Staff members will have no control over or knowledge of the assignment prior to randomization. The probability of being assigned to one of the three arms will vary from week to week, impacted by the staff capacity of Atlanta Mission and composition of other clients on the list in that week. We go into further detail regarding the randomization method in the Pre-Analysis Plan.
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Field
Planned Number of Observations
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Before
Our target sample size is 700-800 clients determined eligible and approved for Make Progress in a given year. Historical records from Atlanta Mission indicate this volume is plausible. We make the following assumptions to further refine our planned number of observations:
350 unique program slots in MP during a given year, based on historical data
Estimated Fast Track slots over 1 year:
-20 men slots
-8 single women slots
-2-4 family slots
-30 in total, with half open at beginning and other half opening 6 months later
Monthly breakdown:
-Months 1-2, 60 people will progress to Make Progress, and the other 60 will be offered Fast Track
-15 of the 60 will secure a job and progress, filling the slots in ~2 months
-Months 3-8, no FT slots available. 180 will progress to Make Progress, 180 will be referred out
-Month 8-10, 15 FT slots available, 60 people will progress to Make Progress, and the other 60 will be offered Fast Track
-15 of the 60 will secure a job and progress, filling the slots in ~2 months
-Months 11-12, no FT slots available. 60 will progress to Make Progress and 60 will be referred out
Over 1 year:
-Estimated Make Progress size: 350
-Estimated control size (referred out and not offered FT): 240
-Estimated offered FT size, not getting a job: 90
-Estimated offered FT size, getting a job: 30
80% consent rate among eligible clients
These assumptions put our anticipated number of observations anywhere from 560-640 in a given year. We will not have data for individuals who do not consent, and those individuals will still be eligible for program slots. Over 3 years, we anticipate our number of observations to fall in the range of 1,680-1,920 consenting clients.
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After
Our target sample size is 700-800 clients determined eligible and approved for Make Progress in a given year. Historical records from Atlanta Mission indicate this volume is plausible. We make the following assumptions to further refine our planned number of observations:
350 unique program slots in MP during a given year, based on historical data
Estimated Workforce Launch slots over 1 year:
-20 men slots
-8 single women slots
-2-4 family slots
-30 in total, with half open at beginning and other half opening 6 months later
Monthly breakdown:
-Months 1-2, 60 people will progress to Make Progress, and the other 60 will be offered Workforce Launch
-15 of the 60 will secure a job and progress, filling the slots in ~2 months
-Months 3-8, no WL slots available. 180 will progress to Make Progress, 180 will be referred out
-Month 8-10, 15 WL slots available, 60 people will progress to Make Progress, and the other 60 will be offered Workforce Launch
-15 of the 60 will secure a job and progress, filling the slots in ~2 months
-Months 11-12, no WL slots available. 60 will progress to Make Progress and 60 will be referred out
Over 1 year:
-Estimated Make Progress size: 350
-Estimated control size (referred out and not offered WL): 240
-Estimated offered WL size, not getting a job: 90
-Estimated offered WL size, getting a job: 30
80% consent rate among eligible clients
These assumptions put our anticipated number of observations anywhere from 560-640 in a given year. We will not have data for individuals who do not consent, and those individuals will still be eligible for program slots. Over 3 years, we anticipate our number of observations to fall in the range of 1,680-1,920 consenting clients.
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Field
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
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Before
Over 3 years:
-Estimated Make Progress size: 1050
-Estimated control size (referred out and not offered FT): 720
-Estimated offered FT size, not getting a job: 270
-Estimated offered FT size, getting a job: 90
Over 3 years, incorporating consent rates:
-Estimated Make Progress size: 840
-Estimated control size (referred out and not offered FT): 576
-Estimated offered FT size, not getting a job: 216
-Estimated offered FT size, getting a job: 72
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After
Over 3 years:
-Estimated Make Progress size: 1050
-Estimated control size (referred out and not offered WL): 720
-Estimated offered WL size, not getting a job: 270
-Estimated offered WL size, getting a job: 90
Over 3 years, incorporating consent rates:
-Estimated Make Progress size: 840
-Estimated control size (referred out and not offered WL): 576
-Estimated offered WL size, not getting a job: 216
-Estimated offered WL size, getting a job: 72
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Field
Power calculation: Minimum Detectable Effect Size for Main Outcomes
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Before
We base our power calculations based on our outcome for returning to homelessness, using Cohen’s 2024 paper: Housing the Homeless: The Effect of Placing Single Adults Experiencing Homelessness in Housing Programs on Future Homelessness and Socioeconomic Outcomes. The study took place in Los Angeles, and the programs observed have similar dosage, intensity, and timing levels as Make Progress and Fast Track. Cohen draws on administrative records from LA County's HMIS, covering single adults who sought assistance between 2016-2017. The short-term sample comprises 15,990 cases with at least 10 months of post-intake outcomes; the medium-term sample comprises 7,584 cases with at least 20 months.
The population is predominantly Black (~53%) and male (~66%), with an average age of ~46. It is a high-need, high-system-contact group: 70% have a prior homeless history, 80% report a physical or mental disability, 60% are chronically homeless, and 27% have a substance abuse problem. Prior system contact is extensive: 52% had emergency health service receipt, 23% had spent at least one night in jail, and 43% had used emergency or crisis services in the 6-12 months before intake.
We consider this population to be comparable to the population served by Atlanta Mission, with them telling us they anticipate their population might be even more high-risk. We use the control means from the paper for the 10 and 20 month outcomes of returning to homelessness. We also anchor our power calculations to the OLS estimates found by Cohen, anticipating them to be akin to our ITT estimates for this RCT.
We only conduct power calculations for our expected primary comparison, Make Progress to Control.
10-Month Outcome - Control Mean = 0.30. Cohen found 8-9 pp reduction.
Year 1 (N = 472: 283 MP, 189 Control)
Absolute MDE: 12.6 percentage points
Relative MDE: 41.9% reduction relative to baseline of 0.30
Year 2 (N = 944: 566 MP, 378 Control)
Absolute MDE: 8.8 percentage points
Relative MDE: 29.4% reduction relative to baseline of 0.30
Year 3 (N = 1416: 850 MP, 566 Control)
Absolute MDE: 7.2 percentage points
Relative MDE: 23.9% reduction relative to baseline of 0.30
20-Month Outcome - Control Mean = 0.42. Cohen found 5-6 pp reduction.
Year 1 (N = 472: 283 MP, 189 Control)
Absolute MDE: 13.1 percentage points
Relative MDE: 31.2% reduction relative to baseline of 0.42
Year 2 (N = 944: 566 MP, 378 Control)
Absolute MDE: 9.3 percentage points
Relative MDE: 22.1% reduction relative to baseline of 0.42
Year 3 (N = 1416: 850 MP, 566 Control)
Absolute MDE: 7.6 percentage points
Relative MDE: 18.0% reduction relative to baseline of 0.42
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After
We base our power calculations based on our outcome for returning to homelessness, using Cohen’s 2024 paper: Housing the Homeless: The Effect of Placing Single Adults Experiencing Homelessness in Housing Programs on Future Homelessness and Socioeconomic Outcomes. The study took place in Los Angeles, and the programs observed have similar dosage, intensity, and timing levels as Make Progress and Workforce Launch. Cohen draws on administrative records from LA County's HMIS, covering single adults who sought assistance between 2016-2017. The short-term sample comprises 15,990 cases with at least 10 months of post-intake outcomes; the medium-term sample comprises 7,584 cases with at least 20 months.
The population is predominantly Black (~53%) and male (~66%), with an average age of ~46. It is a high-need, high-system-contact group: 70% have a prior homeless history, 80% report a physical or mental disability, 60% are chronically homeless, and 27% have a substance abuse problem. Prior system contact is extensive: 52% had emergency health service receipt, 23% had spent at least one night in jail, and 43% had used emergency or crisis services in the 6-12 months before intake.
We consider this population to be comparable to the population served by Atlanta Mission, with them telling us they anticipate their population might be even more high-risk. We use the control means from the paper for the 10 and 20 month outcomes of returning to homelessness. We also anchor our power calculations to the OLS estimates found by Cohen, anticipating them to be akin to our ITT estimates for this RCT.
We only conduct power calculations for our expected primary comparison, Make Progress to Control.
10-Month Outcome - Control Mean = 0.30. Cohen found 8-9 pp reduction.
Year 1 (N = 472: 283 MP, 189 Control)
Absolute MDE: 12.6 percentage points
Relative MDE: 41.9% reduction relative to baseline of 0.30
Year 2 (N = 944: 566 MP, 378 Control)
Absolute MDE: 8.8 percentage points
Relative MDE: 29.4% reduction relative to baseline of 0.30
Year 3 (N = 1416: 850 MP, 566 Control)
Absolute MDE: 7.2 percentage points
Relative MDE: 23.9% reduction relative to baseline of 0.30
20-Month Outcome - Control Mean = 0.42. Cohen found 5-6 pp reduction.
Year 1 (N = 472: 283 MP, 189 Control)
Absolute MDE: 13.1 percentage points
Relative MDE: 31.2% reduction relative to baseline of 0.42
Year 2 (N = 944: 566 MP, 378 Control)
Absolute MDE: 9.3 percentage points
Relative MDE: 22.1% reduction relative to baseline of 0.42
Year 3 (N = 1416: 850 MP, 566 Control)
Absolute MDE: 7.6 percentage points
Relative MDE: 18.0% reduction relative to baseline of 0.42
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Field
Intervention (Hidden)
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Before
The purpose of the RCT is to evaluate the effectiveness of Atlanta Mission’s Stage 2 programs. The Mission believes that Make Progress especially is the most effective type of program for the high acuity population they serve. However, they are currently experiencing a capacity constraint for this resource intensive program; there is not enough space for every individual who is eligible for Make Progress. To allocate resources fairly, Atlanta Mission has been utilizing a weekly lottery system they designed to randomly assign eligible individuals into one of three options:
Make Progress (MP/Treatment 1):
Personalized services over ~6 months in five key areas: physical, emotional, spiritual, social, & vocational. Each client follows a personalized service program based on their needs assessment. Through these services, the goal is for clients to become rooted in community, retain employment, and become housing eligible. Successful clients can then enter Sustain and Grow afterwards, Atlanta Mission’s transitional housing program focused on job retention and long-term stability for those who still have housing needs. Individuals who progress average around 6 months spent in that program.
Fast Track (FT/Treatment 2):
A new bed-only program requiring participants to find employment independently within 30 days. If employment is secured, they will then enter Sustain and Grow having skipped the personalized services in Make Progress. Atlanta Mission views this as a method to serve more individuals at a lower cost with some of their extra bed capacity in the transitional housing wing.
Control Group
Individuals offered no specific program slot due to capacity limitations in both Make Progress and Fast Track. They will be provided with a list of resources available to them in the area. Individuals assigned to this arm will retain their bed at Atlanta Mission for 30 days, receiving minimal staff support to help them land on their feet.
Consent & Randomization:
Atlanta Mission staff members will consent individuals into the study at the time of their determination of approval for Make Progress. This will occur after a needs assessment is complete to finalize to which track in Make Progress an individual will enter. Consent will be collected digitally, with copies provided to the client. Data will only be transferred to the research team for consenting clients. Importantly, all eligible and approved clients will be randomly assigned. Being randomized is not conditional on consenting to the research study.
Randomization is administered entirely by Atlanta Mission through an automated process in their Salesforce client-management system; the research team neither designs nor executes it. Each Monday, eligible clients (those who have completed Stage 1 requirements) are compiled into an approval list. At 5pm the automated procedure assigns each client a random integer and sorts from smallest to largest. Clients are then assigned to available Make Progress slots in draw order, subject to a bunk/room-size feasibility constraint (family size must fit the slot; individuals are placed top-bunk to bottom-bunk). Clients who fit no available MP slot are carried, in original draw order, to a secondary list for Fast Track beds, where the same size-constrained assignment runs. Clients unplaced after FT assignment are referred to Control and given a list of external resources.
The procedure runs every week regardless of capacity. When MP slots suffice for all eligible clients, all are offered MP and no FT or Control assignment occurs; when MP and FT together suffice, no Control assignment occurs. Control assignment arises only in weeks of excess demand for both MP and FT simultaneously. Assignment probabilities are therefore not equal across clients: a client's realized probability of each arm depends on their draw, their stratum, their size-feasibility relative to that week's slot inventory, and the competing queue. We address this in the pre-analysis plan.
Once the automation is run, an email is sent to Atlanta Mission staff detailing the results. They communicate with their clients on Tuesday, and clients will enter Make Progress or Fast Track by Friday of that week. They begin programming the following Monday. The time from having a needs assessment complete and being put on an approval list to when services begin will be as few as 7 and at most 14.
Data Collection:
Atlanta Mission will collect their program data as normal in their database system. This will include case notes, attendance at certain classes, and milestones completed for an individual in programming at Atlanta Mission. The research team will have access to this data, in addition to the intake paperwork and needs assessments conducted throughout a client’s journey. Combining all of Atlanta Mission’s internal data will give the research team a strong understanding of baseline needs and program take-up to support the evaluation.
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After
The purpose of the RCT is to evaluate the effectiveness of Atlanta Mission’s Stage 2 programs. The Mission believes that Make Progress especially is the most effective type of program for the high acuity population they serve. However, they are currently experiencing a capacity constraint for this resource intensive program; there is not enough space for every individual who is eligible for Make Progress. To allocate resources fairly, Atlanta Mission has been utilizing a weekly lottery system they designed to randomly assign eligible individuals into one of three options:
Make Progress (MP/Treatment 1):
Personalized services over ~6 months in five key areas: physical, emotional, spiritual, social, & vocational. Each client follows a personalized service program based on their needs assessment. Through these services, the goal is for clients to become rooted in community, retain employment, and become housing eligible. Successful clients can then enter Sustain and Grow afterwards, Atlanta Mission’s transitional housing program focused on job retention and long-term stability for those who still have housing needs. Individuals who progress average around 6 months spent in that program.
Workforce Launch (WL/Treatment 2):
A new bed-only program requiring participants to find employment independently within 30 days. If employment is secured, they will then enter Sustain and Grow having skipped the personalized services in Make Progress. Atlanta Mission views this as a method to serve more individuals at a lower cost with some of their extra bed capacity in the transitional housing wing.
Control Group
Individuals offered no specific program slot due to capacity limitations in both Make Progress and Workforce Launch. They will be provided with a list of resources available to them in the area. Individuals assigned to this arm will retain their bed at Atlanta Mission for 30 days, receiving minimal staff support to help them land on their feet.
Consent & Randomization:
Atlanta Mission staff members will consent individuals into the study at the time of their determination of approval for Make Progress. This will occur after a needs assessment is complete to finalize to which track in Make Progress an individual will enter. Consent will be collected digitally, with copies provided to the client. Data will only be transferred to the research team for consenting clients. Importantly, all eligible and approved clients will be randomly assigned. Being randomized is not conditional on consenting to the research study.
Randomization is administered entirely by Atlanta Mission through an automated process in their Salesforce client-management system; the research team neither designs nor executes it. Each Monday, eligible clients (those who have completed Stage 1 requirements) are compiled into an approval list. At 5pm the automated procedure assigns each client a random integer and sorts from smallest to largest. Clients are then assigned to available Make Progress slots in draw order, subject to there being an open slot in AM's caseload for that program. Clients who fit no available MP slot are carried, in original draw order, to a secondary list for Workforce Launch beds, where the caseload-constrained assignment runs. Clients unplaced after WL assignment are referred to Control and given a list of external resources.
The procedure runs every week regardless of capacity. When MP slots suffice for all eligible clients, all are offered MP and no WL or Control assignment occurs; when MP and WL together suffice, no Control assignment occurs. Control assignment arises only in weeks of excess demand for both MP and WL simultaneously. A client's realized probability of each arm depends on their draw, their stratum (men vs women), and the competing queue. We address this in the pre-analysis plan.
Once the automation is run, an email is sent to Atlanta Mission staff detailing the results. They communicate with their clients on Tuesday, and clients will enter Make Progress or Workforce Launch by Friday of that week. They begin programming the following Monday. The time from having a needs assessment complete and being put on an approval list to when services begin will be as few as 7 and at most 14.
Data Collection:
Atlanta Mission will collect their program data as normal in their database system. This will include case notes, attendance at certain classes, and milestones completed for an individual in programming at Atlanta Mission. The research team will have access to this data, in addition to the intake paperwork and needs assessments conducted throughout a client’s journey. Combining all of Atlanta Mission’s internal data will give the research team a strong understanding of baseline needs and program take-up to support the evaluation.
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