Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample
design and clustering)
Access component: Assuming a 90% endline response rate, a 20-percentage-point difference in motorcycle acquisition between the discounted and surprise-upgrade arms and that baseline covariates explain 50% of outcome variation, the experiment can detect an acquisition effect of R$268 per month on earnings (16.2% of the baseline mean) and 4.9 hours of work per week (11.6% of baseline hours) at a 5% level of significance and 80% power.
Exposure component: Assuming a 90% endline response rate, a significance level of 5\% and power of 80\%, I would be able to detect an effect of working in a rich neighborhood (versus any control neighborhood) of at least 7.6 percentage points (12\%) on voting for a pro-redistribution candidate, of at least 6.4 percentage points (25\%) on working at a rich neighborhood, and of at least 0.16 standard deviations on an index of attitudes towards the rich or an index of preferences for redistribution.