Assessing the importance of macroeconomic indicators for households’ subjective economic well-being

Last registered on August 20, 2026
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Assessing the importance of macroeconomic indicators for households’ subjective economic well-being
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019383
Initial registration date
August 17, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 20, 2026, 9:23 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Gizem Kosar
Affiliation
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Wilbert van der Klaauw
PI Affiliation
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Wandi Bruine de Bruin
PI Affiliation
University of Southern California
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-08-25
End date
2026-09-25
Keywords
Finance & Microfinance, Labor
Additional Keywords
Household experiences and expectations, subjective well-being, inflation, unemployment, stock market
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This project aims to shed light on the link between perceptions and expectations about macroeconomic aggregates such as inflation, unemployment rate, and stock market performance and household expectations about their subjective financial well-being. We provide randomized information on the past year’s macroeconomic aggregates to 75% of the sample. One-third of those receive information about the inflation rate over the past 12 months, one-third receive information about the change in the unemployment rate over the past 12 months, and one-third receive information about the past year’s stock market performance. We investigate the impact of the information treatments on households’ macroeconomic expectations as well as their micro-level expectations about their own job loss, household income growth, and household spending growth. We assess the perceived contribution of information about macroeconomic aggregates on households’ expected subjective financial well-being.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Bruine de Bruin, Wandi, Gizem Kosar and Wilbert van der Klaauw. 2026. "Assessing the importance of macroeconomic indicators for households’ subjective economic well-being." AEA RCT Registry. August 20. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19383-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We provide randomized information on the past year’s macroeconomic aggregates to three-fourths of the sample. One-third of those receive information about the inflation rate over the past 12 months, one-third receive information about the change in the unemployment rate over the past 12 months, and one-third receive information about the past year’s stock market performance.
Intervention Start Date
2026-08-25
Intervention End Date
2026-09-25

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
i.Year-ahead subjective financial well-being
ii. Year-ahead job loss expectations
iii.Year-ahead household income growth expectations
iv. Year-ahead household spending growth expectations
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
i. year-ahead inflation expectations
ii. Year-ahead expectations for the change in unemployment rate
iii. Year-ahead expectations for the change in stock market performance
iv. Perceived contribution of macroeconomic factors on subjective financial well-being
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Our design is a randomized information intervention embedded within a survey. Eligibility to participate in the survey includes giving consent to be contacted after rotating out of the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations panel.

The randomization is done at the individual level. Respondents are divided into four groups:
i) Control (25% of the couples)
ii) Treatment (75% of the couples)

The treatment group is divided into three groups:
a) Treatment 1 (25% of all respondents, 30% of treated respondents)
b) Treatment 2 (25% of all respondents, 30% of treated respondents)
c) Treatment 3 (25% of all respondents, 30% of treated respondents)


T1 provides information about the inflation rate over the past 12 months. T2 provides information about the change in the unemployment rate over the past 12 months. T3 provides information about the past year’s stock market performance.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is done randomly by the computer by the survey vendor, NielsenIQ.
Randomization Unit
Randomization is done at the individual level.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Not clustered.
Sample size: planned number of observations
2000 respondents
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
500 control respondents
1500 treatment respondents

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Southern California Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
2026-08-12
IRB Approval Number
UP-26-00630
Analysis Plan